Friday, May 28, 2010

Kevin Millar escorted from seat in Fenway

Kevin Millar, one of the integral members of the 2004 Red Sox World Series was kicked out of a dugout-side seat during today's game against the Royals when it was discovered he didn't have a ticket for the seat. Is this the way to treat a guy who was one of the leaders on a team that brought the team its first World Series championship in 86 years and ended the curse of the Bambino? I'm pretty sure there wasn't anyone at Fenway complaining and maybe the Red Sox should relax a little. With their struggles so far this year they could use Millar's laid back attitude. The Royals ended up thumping the Sox 12-5. Could this be the start of the Curse of the Idiot?

Thursday, May 27, 2010

John Ely surprising find for Dodgers

Two weeks after his 24th birthday Dodgers rookie John Ely pitched brilliantly but still took the loss in a game where pitching reigned supreme. Despite lowering his ERA .41 points his record fell to 3-2 on the year. After a shaky debut he has held opposing teams to 2 runs or less in all 5 subsequent starts and is clearly holding his own in the Bigs after a rapid ascent through the minors. Impressing with a 14-2 record in AA last year he needed only 3 AAA starts in 2010 before being called up to The Show. Without overpowering stuff, Ely could be a candidate for regression. His solid control could be the key to his staying power and the toss-in in the Juan Pierre trade could be a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Are the 2010 Blue Jays for real?

As we approach the quarter-way point of the season it becomes time to question whether some of the early season surprises are for real or whether they should brace themselves for impact.

Many predicted the Toronto Blue Jays would lose 90 or more games this year but they have themselves a handsome 23-16 record to this point. A collapse is expected but it may not be as big as some may think.

The Halladay-less Jays pitching staff has surprisingly been the team's strong point even without the best pitcher in the game. Led by Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum the Jays have found ways to win tight ballgames. Brandon Morrow is coming around as a more dependable arm in the rotation.

The offense doesn't connect much with a combined .238 AVG but when they do, look out! The Jays mashers have hit an MLB leading 60 home runs, 11 more than the second place Red sox. The team's ISO is a mind boggling and unsustainable .221. While Alex Gonzalez and Jose Bautista's power surges - 10 HR each - are likely to slow; Vernon Wells' own surge is looking legitimate due to a healthy wrist and return to old form. Any regression by Gonzalez and Bautista is likely to be picked up by an improvement in play by Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. The duo have put up a combined .204 AVG, 9 HR and 30 RBI in 240 at bats just a year after teaming up to go .295 AVG, 71 HR, 232 RBI. While Hill likely won't hit as many home runs as last year he and Lind are much better hitters than they have displayed so far.

New GM Alex Anthopolous has done a nice job of building on what JP Ricciardi left behind. The trade for Fred Lewis has provided the spark the team has needed at the top of the lineup after the departure of Marco Scutaro. Free Agent closer Kevin Gregg was a nice find and is in the middle of a break-out season. Anthopolous also acquired starting pitcher Dana Eveland in a deal with Oakland. Eveland has done a nice job at the back end of the rotation.

With Travis Snider's bat heating up and a couple of prospects knocking on the door, the Jays could continue their winning ways. Sure, they aren't likely to catch the Rays or Yankees this year but they are a looking a lot more than just the punching bags many predicted them to be.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Stats vs. Intangibles

Baseball is a number lover's game but there will always the debate between numbers an intangibles. Derek Jeter is perhaps the poster boy for intangibles. The numbers say he is a below average defender. One the other hand there are those who watch him and say he is above average. Who do you believe?

A common example is the 2001 ALDS play where he sprinted across the diamond to snag an errant throw and flip it to the catcher to nail the runner at home. An intangibles fan would say the numbers don't show that.

So?

How many times has Jeter made that play? Once. What about the ball hit up the middle that eludes Captain Yankee but would have found a home in the glove of a more fleet footed shortstop? The plays that matter most are the routine plays and balls hit into a defender's zone. And that's where Derek falls behind. The numbers show show a Jeter with limited range and a decent arm.

Sure Jeter is exciting to watch. Seeing him snag a ball on the run then jump and spin a throw to first certainly looks impressive. The shortstop that makes that same play look easy is the really impressive one. Unfortunately a shortstop getting to a ball standing up with plenty of time to make a throw isn't as likely to make it to Sportscenter.

And that begs the question. Does it really matter if Jeter is a sub-par defender? Baseball afterall is a form of entertainment and all that flash and dazzle certainly adds to the game's excitement.

In the end Jeter is still an above-average all-around player and has a knack for making it look great.

Past Promise: Zach Crouch

In my wandering through baseball history I came across an interesting player who seemed to have some pitching talent but for whatever reason was unable to carve out a Major League career. Zach Crouch was a young southpaw making his way through the Red Sox organization in the late eighties.

Playing his first professional season at age 19 he posted an 8-5 record with a 3.78 ERA. Crouch moved through the Red Sox system quickly and by 1988 at age 22 he was pitching for AAA Pawtucket. That same year he got his one and only shot at the big time and allowed 4 hits while walking a pair in 1.1 innings pitched. The next year he was down to AA and put up a solid 3.26 ERA. Despite the promising showing in AA the 1989 season would be his last.

Digging a little deeper I was unable to find out more about why he never stuck around the show. He could have left for personal reasons or a loss of confidence after being beat around at the higher levels. Judging solely one the number however suggest he could have become a successful big league pitcher.

Zach Crouch followed a similar path to the majors as current Red Sox hurler Jon Lester. Through 611 innings pitched in the minors, Crouch had a 3.58 ERA. Lester posted a 3.33 ERA in 483.2 minor league innings. The difference is Crouch's innings were spread across 5 seasons whereas Lester's came in 6 seasons. The large workload for a young pitcher may have wore him out mentally if not physically.

This story is an example of one of the many talented players who never rise to prominence despite having the talent. It is also a tale in the unpredictability of life. It is proof that talent alone cannot get you to the show and should act as a lesson in perseverance. We can only wonder what Zach Crouch could have become. However, there is no denying he had some skill in keeping people from scoring runs.

Monday, May 10, 2010

NHL intros

I just want to comment on how exciting the start of an NHL play-off game is. With an energy filled song blaring the opposing team takes to the ice to a chorus of boos. The song gains momentum then at the climax the home team comes blazing out of the gate for their warm-up.

From the music to the crowd to the players doing circles and shooting pucks, everything works in harmony to get you amped for the game. Nothing, not baseball players lining up on the foul lines or basketball players running a gauntlet of high fives can quite match the energy and excitement of an NHL intro.

Boston Red Sox prospect Josh Reddick struggling in Triple A

When Baseball America ranked Josh Reddick #75 on their top 100 prospects list many people expected more from him in 2010. Reddick is hitting only .182 through 105 at bats at Pawtucket AAA. He has flashed some power hitting 5 long balls.

Reddick has a history of struggling after moving up a level but has bounced back nicely the past few seasons. Reddick should be able to iron out some problems in AAA and start to produce on a more consistant basis.

His .205 Isolated Power number shows he will cause some trouble for opposing pitchers once he starts making better contact. A .282 career minor league hitter with plenty of power and a bazooka for an arm he projects to be the Red Sox starting right fielder once JD Drew moves on.

Will Dallas Braden continue strong play?

Much has been said about the perfect game by Dallas Braden perfect game coming out of nowhere. However, the young Oakland Athletics pitcher Dallas Braden has been playing like someone A-Rod should have heard about even before the mound crossing incident and the perfect game that would follow.

Desoite what Rodriguez would have you think, Braden is actually a pitcher worth knowing. Flying under the radar in Oakland he has quietly gone about becoming one of the better young pitchers around. His minor league numbers were solid including a 2.68 career Triple A era while striking out nearly 10 per nine innings.

Through 7 starts in 2010 his ERA sits at 3.33with a WHIP below 1.00 while showing superb control. Braden has only been beat up on once this season and that was by the Tampa Bay Rays, the team he would eventually pitch his perfect game against.

Still only 26, Braden should team with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez to form once of the better young rotations in baseball sometime in the not too distant future.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

John Stilson making his way up the 2011 Draft board

After being drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 19th round out of junior college, John Stilson decided not to sign and went off to Texas A&M instead. He seems to have made the right decision and could possibly go in the first round of the 2011 draft. Teaming with Barret Loux to form one of the best 1-2 punches in Division I, Stilson has gotten off to a start almost as hot as his mid-to-high 90s fastball.

Stilson is near the top of the leaderboards in a number of categories so far this year. His ERA comes in 3rd at 1.07 and the sixth place 2.54 FIP shows it's no fluke. He has shown an ability to power through hitters evidenced by his 13.95 K/9. Many young fireballers struggle with control but Stilson has managed to keep a respectable 2.50 BB/9.

His secondary pitches could use some work but they do show promise. He is able to mix a 95-98 MPH fastball with a developing slider that comes in around 81-83. He also has a curve and a change-up but both pitches need some polish before they would be big league ready.

Stilson has all the tools to be a successful reliever with swing and miss stuff. Look for him to go in the early rounds and expect a bumpy but steady rise into the big leagues where he could one day turn into a solid set-up man or if he can add some more bite to that slider he could turn into one of the game's nastier closers.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Taking on Keith Law's take on tasing

Listening to ESPN radio today I heard Keith Law defending a Police Officer's use of a taser on a 17 year old fan running amok at a Philadelphia baseball game. Law argued the tasing was necessary since you never know what someone on the field is capable of doing. He went on to suggest the tasing was meant to deter people from doing it again. However, the next night there was another fan running in on a Major League game. If tasing isn't enough to deter them then what? Should we have armed riot police?

While I agree it is necessary to protect the players on the field from nut-jobs, but since when are police officers exempt from using a bit of common sense? The kid clearly wasn't looking to cause any harm, he was just an idiot looking for attention.

Law goes on to suggest putting up plexi glass to prevent fans from entering the field of play. There is already talk of putting up nets to protect fans from line drives. Safety is one thing but paying attention to a baseball game and being alert enough to get out of the way of a ball is another. Moves like these will only remove fans from the game more. One of the most exciting parts about going to a baseball game is the chance of catching a fly ball.

When a teenager can't act like a fool without being suspected of harboring criminal intents then paranoia is truly out of control.

Staal is made of steel

Just days after undergoing surgery on a severed tendon is his foot, Jordan Staal is back on the ice skating with his Penguins teammates. The injury occured on a freak accident when PK Subban's skate blade sliced through the tongue of Staal's skate. When Staal missed game 2 of the Penguins second round series it snapped a streak of 358 consecutive games played - the longest active streak in the NHL.

Staal has been remarkably healthy up to this point, missing just a single game in his four year career.

Jordan's speedy recovery is quite amazing and if he returns to the Penguins lineup anytime soon it will speak volumes to his commitment and competition level, not to mention a Wolverine-like ability to heal himself. As a part of the Staal family, hockey is no doubt in his veins. He may very well also have steel in his bones.

Chien-Ming Wang fantasy analysis

Nationals starting pitcher Chien-Ming Wang is close to pitching to live hitters again. This is a good sign for the former Cy Young candidate and fantasy owners will be watching him carefully. However, it is unlikely he will regain his old form after undergoing shoulder surgery and a move from the Yankees to the Nationals is certain to hurt his chances of having any fantasy impact.

Wang racked up the wins in New York but that was all he would rack up. Even during his most dominant seasons he offered little fantasy value and was barely a top 50 pitcher.

Best case scenario for Wang in 2010 is a half season on the mound with a 4.50 era, 5 wins and 50 strikeouts. Coming off 2 injury filled seasons and shoulder surgery he is clearly not worth the risk even in the deepest of leagues.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Halak solid but Fleury better as Penguins take 2-1 lead

After defeating the Capitals in one of hockey's all-time upsets the Montreal Canadians' season is starting to look like it might be shorter than they had hoped.

Halak can only do so much in this Cinderella story and the Canadians are wearing down under the constant pressure of the Penguins' mix of solid defence and an opportunistic offense. By the third period they were clearly worn out.

Not to be outdone by Halak, Marc-Andre Fleury was brilliant at his end of the rink and came up huge when needed. Fleury kept the score at zeros until Evgeni Malkin got one past Halak.

Pascual Dupuis finished off a strong night by popping in an empty netter to put the stake in the heart of the Canadians fans.

Mike Cammalleri was once again Montreal's top offensive threat but he couldn't put one past Fleury. The Canadians' defence was solid as usual but they were unable to create any sustained pressure on offense.

Montreal is putting Sidney Crosby's leadership skills to the test much like they did to Alex Ovechkin in the first round. The result is a feistier Crosby who is a bit off his game but can break out at any moment.

Tyler Kennedy looked shaky in his return to the Penguin's lineup but simply having his energy in the line-up is bound to help a team. Craig Adams picked up some of Kennedy's slack made his presence known on the ice a number of times. Mark Eaton lost too many battles and was the Pens' weakest D-man. Jordan Leopold also returned from injury and did his part in limited ice-time. Leopold's return should ease some of the burden on Eaton and Eaton's play should improve as a result.

With so many strong players to step up when needed the Penguins are displaying true championship form. Playing against a stronger all-around team the Canadians will need more than just their goalie playing role of the fairy god mother in this tale.

If diving in hockey continues the ratings will soon follow

Diving seems to be on the rise in the NHL and it is a troubling trend. Daniel Carcillo and Maxime Lapierre are leading the charge but even players without shady reputations like Ruslan Fedotenko are getting in on the action.

Trying to gain an edge for your team is one thing but making a mockery of the game is another.

Referees are cracking down but if it continues the league may have to step in and start assessing suspensions or fines. It may seem a bit harsh but the game's integrity is at stake.

Watching Footballers rool around on the ground as if they've just been shot makes the game unwatchable. To see a player assessed a red card for a foul they didn't even commit makes the game into a joke. Hockey doesn't have the luxury of being an international sport on the level of football and diving needs to be addressed before it drives fans away.

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen has been touted as one of baseball's top power hitting prospects. While he has the size and strength to hit 30+ home runs he still needs some refinement before he can become a productive big league player. In 2008 he hit 29 HRs between A and AA but in 2009 dropped to 20 between AA and AAA. In 116 at bats with the Diamondbacks he managed only 4 HR with a .202 avg.

Strikeouts continue to be his achilles heal, whiffing on 38.5% of his trips to the plate at the big league level. However, he did manage to significantly cut his strikeouts in the minors. Allen struggled in the Arizona Fall League and has gotten off to a slow start in 2010 further delaying his return to the show.

Brandon swiped 17 bases in 2008 and while it is unlikely he will post similar numbers in the majors it does show a level of athleticism. The speed means he has quick feet for a man his size and it could come in handy in the field. If he can display solid defense it will give him a longer leash in the bigs to display his power and cut down on the Ks, otherwise he will end up as yet another power hitter with nothing else to offer.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Yunel Escobar

Yunel Escobar's traditional numbers of .215 0hr 8rbi look atrocious but a closer look at his sabermatic numbers shows some more promising details.

Escobar's walk rate is up to 10.1% from 9.4% last year while his K rate sits nearly a full percentage point lower than his career average. Improvements in these two areas often lead to an increase in production. Another bright spot is how his contact percentage has risen 3% above his career average to 88.7%.

Escobar's struggles are most likely due to his uncharacteristically low .243 babip and 11.6% line drive rate. The low babip isprobably a mix of luck and his struggles to put the ball where he wants it. The drop in line drive rate shows he isn't making quality contact.

Yunel is likely heading for the DL and a nagging injury may be partly to blame for his struggles at the dish.

When he returns from injury he could bounce back to form if he continues to improve his plate discipline and makes the solid contact he had shown in his previous 3 big league seasons.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Early Silver Slugger leaders

Having just passed the 25 games mark it's not too early to recognize the Silver Sluggers for the young season.

AL

C - Jorge Posada's line of .316 5hr 12rbi gives him an edge over Joe Mauer and his .345 1hr 13rbi. Matt Wieters is having a solid sophmore season posting numbers of .279 2hr 11rbi.

1B - Paul Konerko leads all big league players with 11 HRs and his slugging percentage is .106 above any MLB first baseman. Miguel Cabrera leads the majors with 26rbi while also posting a .343 ave and 5hr. Justin Morneau is nearly as impressive with .350 6hr 18rbi

2B - Robinson Cano has posted the best numbers at second base so far by batting .389 with 8hr and 18rbi. Ty Wigginton has looked good so far going .308 6hr 12rbi. Dustin Pedroia is solid at .302 6hr 18rbi

SS - Alex Gonzalez has slugged 7hr with 19rbi while Derek Jeter continues to shine hitting .322 4hr 19rbi. Elvis Andrus leads Major League shortstops with a .400 OBP

3B - Evan Longoria leads a weak AL third basemen class .341 5hr 18rbi. Whatever his age may truly be Miguel Tejada continues to rake posting .293 4hr 13rbi.

LF - In the closest decision Josh Hamilton's .273 4hr 12rbi narrowly edges out
Adam Lind's .274 4hr 14rbi due to a .067 edge in OPS. Carl Crawford is setting himself up nicely for a big contract by batting .326 2hr 13rbi 7sb.

CF - Vernon Wells' wrist looks to be healed and it shows in his numbers .323 8hr 17rbi. Austin Jackson leads all MLB rookies with his .356 avg and 5 stolen bases

RF - Nelson Cruz is proving any doubters wrong by bashing .323 7hr 17rbi 5sb. Jose Guillen seems motivated by the prospect of free agency batting .292 7hr 19rbi. Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .318 4hr 16rbi and with mandatory military service in his native South Korea looming over his head he will be looking for similar production at the2010 Asian Games where a gold medal would waive his military obligation. A thinner Andruw Jones is reviving his career going .276 8hr 11rbi 4sb

NL

C - Ryan Doumit looks to have bounced back nicely from an injury plagued 2009 by hitting .316 3hr 12rbi. Bengie Molina continues to hit well at 35 posting a .343 avg with 2hr and 9rbi. His brother Yadier leads MLB catchers with 15rbi

1B - Albert Pujols is off to another solid start going .344 7hr 21rbi and Adrian Gonzalez is looking like an awfully good piece of trade bait hitting .286 6hr 17rbi.

2B - Kelly Johnson is atop the NL home run charts along with teammate Mark Reynolds posting 9 long balls. Johnson has also driven in 18 to go along with a .310 avg. Martin Prado opened the season on a 10 game hitting streak and has hit safely in 21 of 24. Prado's average currently stands at .368. Chase Utley remains part of any top second baseman conversation with a .294 avg and 6hr 15rbi.

SS - Not surprisingly Hanley Ramirez is the head of the NL SS class after opening the season .300 3hr 10rbi. Ryan Theriot has looked good with a .343 avg and 5 stolen bases. Orlando Cabrera leads NL shortstops with 14rbi.

3b - Jorge Cantu's .311 5hr 23rbi and MLB record 10 consecutive games with hit and rbi to start a season put him at the head of the NL third basemen field. Sophmore Casey McGehee has found a home at the hot corner in Milwaukee batting .305 5hr 19rbi. "Kung Fu Panda" Pablo Sandoval has used all 262lbs of himself to slug .352 with 3hr 10rbi. Mark Reynolds has survived 28 strikeouts to hit 9 home runs and drive in 23.

LF - Ryan Braun continues to be the NL's premiere left fielder by posting .355 5hr 20rbi 6sb. To start his first full year in the bigs Carlos Gonzalez has gone .345 3hr 17rbi. Alfonso Soriano may finally be making an effort to earn his contract by hitting 4hr 13rbi

CF - Kosuke Fukudome has shown us a glimpse of what he was capable of doing in Japan with .353 5hr 17rbi and may have finally come around to the North American game. Colby Rasmus has built nicely on a solid rookie campaign by going .304 6hr 12rbi. Matt Kemp has looked great .278 7hr 20rbi.

RF - Andre Ethier has been the better of the two young Dodgers sluggers hitting .350 7hr 22rbi. Rookie phenom Jason Heyward has shown that the hype may be well deserved batting .256 7hr 20rbi. Jayson Werth could be looking for a big pay-day after the season ends and is doing his part with the bat to make sure it happens .338 3hr 16rbi.

Scully and Uecker as timeless as ever

I feel privilaged tonight listening to Vin Scully and Bob Uecker. Vin Scully has the ability to call a game with such detail you could close your eyes and imagine the game as it is happening. His knowledge of baseball history is astounding and his anecdotes fascinating. Uecker brings back memories of Harry Doyle from the old Major League films. His acting was so good that as a child I didn't even know he was a real broadcaster.

Scully and Uecker truly are two of the greatest broadcasters to ever call a game.