1. Robinson Cano - The Yankee second baseman finished third in AL MVP voting in 2010 and will garner a lot of attention in drafts this year. His numbers were very similar to 2009 and the rise in BB% is a good sign. The added walks kept pitchers honest with him and also allowed him to move into a better batting position for runs and rbis. Cano's HR/FB should drop a bit so don't expect more power but everything else should remain mostly the same. I would wager on him producing .305AVG/25HR/102RBI/100R
Upside Projection: .314AVG/27HR/108RBI/104R
Possible Basement: .292AVG/23HR/94RBI/95R
2. Chase Utley - I am wary of ranking Utley this high because I'm not so certain he will return to his elite form but the guy is so gritty and a warrior that you gotta give him the benefit of the doubt. He has played through injuries his entire career so why should a little thumb injury slow him down? Even if he doesn't return to 100% of his old self he'll still be good enough that he won't hurt your fantasy team. Look for something like .280/24HR/91RBI/99R/12SB
Upside Projection: .290AVG/28HR/104RBI/111R/15SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/90RBI/92R/8SB
3. Dustin Pedroia - I really want Pedroia on my fantasy team this year. As a Jays fan it pains me to admire a division rival so much but the little tyke can flat out play. He's one of the hardest workers in baseball and when he sees a weakness in his game he fixes it. Last year he said he wanted to hit for more power and went yard a dozen times by the break before a foot injury ended his season. I thought about ranking him #1 but I'm a bit worried about what the injury will do for his speed and it may take him a bit of time to get back in a groove. I believe in the newfound power and I think he has an outside (Rick Vaughn fastball outside)shot at 30HR although I see something more like 22-25 being realistic. Hitting at the top of the Red Sox lineup he'll give you runs like he was Mexican drinking water. I'm projecting .308AVG/23HR/84RBI/118R/16SB
Upside Projection: .318AVG/28HR/94RBI/125R/24SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/15HR/79RBI/95R/10SB
4. Dan Uggla - Uggla is ranked this high simply because he is baseball's most consistent power hitting second baseman. You can count on him going deep more often that a Maori porn star but he also gives you about as many hits as Lil Peanut. Who? Exactly. .255AVG/32HR/106RBI/97R
Upside Projection:.275AVG/36HR/115RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .250AVG/29HR/98RBI/86R
5. Ian Kinsler - I considered ranking Kinsler lower but he has more upside than any of the players below him. He has above average contact skills which could mean a high batting average however he tends to put the ball in the air a lot which will bring the AVG down. He struggled to get the ball out of the park last year with only 6% of his flyballs leaving the yard. If he can get that back up to his career average around 10% he will return to the upper tier of power hitting two-baggers. If healthy in 2011 he should be higher on next year's list and has a chance at going 25-25. A lot of people will be turned off by his so-so 2010 numbers which means he could be a real bargain if still around later in the draft. If healthy I think he's good for .285AVG/20HR/70RBI/105R/22SB
Upside Projection: .305AVG/27HR/90RBI/115R/25SB
Possible Basement: .265AVG/16HR/65RBI/85R/18SB
6. Brandon Phillips - Phillips may be trending downward but he should remain a dependable fantasy asset in 2011. He had an outstanding first half but was banged up during the second half and faded. His SB success was rate was terrible and may lead to him getting the red light more often. He often hit leadoff but his skill-set is better suited in the #2 spot. Either way he is going to score lots of runs at the top of a powerful Reds lineup. I expect his HR numbers to bounce back a bit but I'll wait and see about the SB. .278AVG/22HR/74RBI/102R/18SB (The runs and rbi totals are assuming he stays in the #1 hole)
Upside Projection: .280AVG/25HR/84RBI/108R/23SB
Possible Basement: .269AVG/18HR/70RBI/88R/14SB
7. Martin Prado - Breaking out big in 2010 Martin Prado was a top 10 fantasy performer at 3B and 2B. Toss in 1B eligibility and Prado's value went beyond the numerous points he brought your team. Heading into his age 27 season we could see Prado build on his strong 2010.
With an AVG over .300 for 3 successive years we can safely assume he can maintain those numbers. He shocked many by adding pop to the high batting average by going yard 15 times last season. He tailed off after the all-star break hitting only 5 dingers but that could be explained by the fact that he was fairly banged up. Health seems to be the only thing standing in the way of Prado taking another step forward in 2011. While he is probably close to his ceiling he is a safe bet to be a top 10 2B performer again. He retains #B eligibility further boosting his value. I foresee something near .310AVG/17HR/74RBI/98R
Upside Projection: .319AVG/21HR/83RBI/112R/7SB
Possible Basement: .301AVG/9HR/64RBI/84R/4SB
8. Rickie Weeks - Finally healthy for an entire season Rickie Weeks put up monster numbers in 2010 nearly doubling his career high in HRs going from 16 to 29. This makes it appear he is due for a drop back into the teens but his ISO was actually 3 points higher in 2007 when he only launched 16 over the wall. Rickie should be good for 20-25 HR. Weeks has been an extremely proficient base stealer with a career 82% success rate but only swiped 11 in 2010. If given a chance to run a jump to 20 SB is a real possibility. The strikeouts will keep the average down and I'm expecting the BABIP to drop to about .300 which will bring his AVG down toward the .250s. The AVG could go even lower if he fails to repeat the power numbers from last year.
We also can't forget about the injury history.
I think Weeks has great power and is a threat on the basepaths but the big split between his upside and basement numbers shows the amount of risk involved in drafting Weeks. I would keep his basement numbers in mind on draft day since they are just as likely as another monster year. Count on something around .260AVG/20HR/73RBI/95R/20SB
Upside Projection: 647AB/172H/.266AVG/28HR/86RBI/110R/25SB
Possible Basement: 510AB/123H/.238AVG/16HR/64RBI/83R/12SB
9. Kelly Johnson - Kelly Johnson's power surge looked to be due to a move to a more hitter friendly park in Arizona with 16 of 26 coming in the Grand Canyon state. He also sported an out-of-character 15.6% HR/FB which should come back down to earth a bit. Heading into 2011 he should see a slight dip in power while maintaining the AVG. I wouldn't expect anything more than what he did in 2010 but he should be a solid fantasy 2B ranking in the bottom half of the top 10. I project .277AVG/19HR/74RBI/83R/13SB
Boom Prediction: 600AB/168H/.285AVG/23HR/85RBI/88R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 540AB145H/.266AVG/16HR/69RBI/80R/7SB
10. Aaron Hill - Aaron Hill may have been the biggest letdown in fantasy baseball in 2010. He remained powerful but his batting average suffered due to putting everything in the air. Hill has a smooth swing and is a better hitter than his AVG suggests. I believe he is a .270 20HR hitter which is good but not great. He is a safe bet to be an above average performer but it is unlikely he will be a dominating force like he was in 2009. Aim for something in the neighborhood of .268AVG/25HR/85RBI/80R
Boom Prediction: 645AB/180H/.279AVG/29HR/95RBI/92R
Bust Prediction: 505AB/132H/.261AVG/18HR/70RBI/74R
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