Welcome to the 2011 3B rankings. The position is led by a trio of young studs and is littered with declining veterans. The position is deep if you're into decent players with lots of question marks attached. I've included a blurb with each top 10 player and projections of where I see them in 2011 as well as Upside projections and a Bust prediction. The upside is what I see as the best case scenario for them if everything falls in place. These numbers are ones I would be surprised to see topped but are a possibility. The bust predictions are numbers I could see them producing over a full season where they are banged up but playing nearly a full schedule. They could go lower than these stats but that would most likely involve an injury that I have no way of foreseeing. The Upside and Bust numbers give a good idea of the risk involved with the player with the more consistent players having a smaller gap whereas the riskier guys have a bigger gap. Please feel free to comment on any of the projections or if you think I over-ranked or under-ranked anyone please let me know.
1. David Wright - Wright had a nice return to form after his power went on sabbatical in 2009. He seems to have adjusted to Citi Field's dimensions and is once again a potential 30 HR man. The thing that gives him the slight edge over Longoria is the 20 SB potential. Wright does have his red flags though as his K-rate continues to rise and there's the chance the power takes another dip. I'm not too worried but I wouldn't blame you for taking Longoria over Wright. .286AVG/28HR.109RBI/99R/20SB
Upside Projection: .312AVG/30HR/115RBI/108R/26SB
Bust Prediction: .278AVG/23HR/94RBI/90R/15SB
2. Evan Longoria - A drop in power knocked Longoria from the top spot but the odds are he improves on his HR numbers in 2011. Losing Crawford could hurt his RBI totals but I'm not too worried. The 15 SB were a nice surprise but I'm not counting on a repeat although his success rate could mean even more to come. As far as upside goes Longoria takes the cake over Wright and Zimmerman as he has 35+ HR potential. I'm going for something in the neighborhood of .282AVG/32HR/104RBI/100R/11SB
Upside Projection: .308AVG/36HR/117RBI/104R/20SB
Bust Prediction: .280AVG/25HR/97RBI/90R/8SB
3. Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman's glove seems to get him over-ranked in fantasy. He's a solid performer but not in the same class as Longoria and Wright. What you've seen from him the past couple years is what you can pretty much expect. Still only 26 there is room for improvement but I'm not holding my breath. .302AVG/30HR/104RBI/99R
Upside Projection: .310AVG/34HR/109RBI/107R
Bust Prediction: .286AVG/27HR/95RBI/92R
4. Alex Rodriguez - Hitting in the heart of the Yankees lineup is sure to provide a plethora of points for your fantasy team, however, A-Rod needs to stay healthy in order to do this. Rodriguez's power has been in decline the past few years and 30 HR is no longer a given. He should remain valuable but don't expect 1st round production. A-Rod's bust projection is based on missing about 40 games. If he plays 140-150 games I expect .280AVG/30HR/115RBI/90R
Upside Projection: .295AVG/34HR/120RBI/100R
Bust Prediction: .276AVG/25HR/96RBI/81R
5. Kevin Youkilis - In some leagues Youk may not be eligible for 3B until later in the season but once he does his value will rise dramatically. Some H2H players may want to draft Youkilis as their third baseman then pick up a stop gap in the later rounds to hold the spot til he is eligible. I expect a full recovery and 25+ HR with something around 200 RBI/R. .304AVG/25HR/97RBI/101R
Upside Projection: .312AVG/30HR/112RBI/110R
Bust Prediction: .294AVG/23HR/94RBI/92R
6. Jose Bautista - I'm more of a believer in Bautista sustaining his 2010 levels than most. No, I don't think he'll hit 54 HR again but I do think he's a 40 HR guy. Even before his breakout in september 2009 I was impressed with his eye at the plate. I believe this is the biggest factor to his success. He could see the ball well and once he learned to get the bat moving earlier he found lighting in a bottle. See the ball, unleash hell on it. Joey Bats is a big risk in the first round or two but could pay off huge. .254AVG/41HR/107RBI/94R
Upside Projection: .265AVG/42HR/114RBI/98R
Bust Prediction: .240AVG/28HR/82RBI/79R
7. Adrian Beltre - A bit of luck on balls in play and added RBI opportunities due to the lineup he was in hid the fact that 2010 was mostly another typical Beltre season. He'll give you mid-20 HR totals with a rosterable AVG and a good number of RBIs. I'm not counting on a repeat in the AVG and RBI departments and expect a year in line with what he did from 2006-08. Let someone over-pay to be disappointed. .282AVG/26HR/95RBI/83R
Upside Projection: .290AVG/28HR/98RBI/85R
Bust Prediction: .265AVG/24HR/88RBI/77R
8. Pedro Alvarez - Pedro Alvarez is a breakout waiting to happen. With fantastic power numbers in the minors he made his way to the majors quickly and after a slow debut month he really turned it on. Having Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata hitting in front of him will provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Only 24 on opening day Alvarez will run into some bumps in the road but that road could lead to consistent 30+ HR seasons. But for 2011 with such poor protection in the Pirates' lineup he will probably fall short of 30 unless he catches fire for an extended period of time during the season. .260AVG/26HR/92RBI/73R
Upside Projection: 576AB/158H/.274AVG/33HR/104RBI/78R
Bust Prediction: 522AB/133H/.250AVG/23HR/83RBI/65R
9. Aramis Ramirez - Aramis Ramirez was hindered by injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. A slight return of his AVG should be expected as he posted .241 AVG after batting .289 or higher for the past 6 seasons. The power is still there so a HR total in the high 20s is likely. A horrendous first half disguised an excellent second half that proves there's still something left in the tank. He could, however, miss more time to injuries and continue to decline. If he remains healthy he will be a solid bat but that is a major if. Chances are A-Ram doesn't go the entire season without hitting the DL. The bust numbers include about 40-50 games missed. If healthy I expect .280AVG/26HR/96RBI/72R
Upside Projection: .289AVG/29HR/104RBI/77R
Bust Prediction: .260AVG/14HR/43RBI/38R
10. Mark Reynolds - Smashing 44 home runs in 2009 and swiping 24 bags made Reynolds a fantasy star at third base. Regression was to be expected but many were surprised when Reynolds limped to the finish line with a .198 AVG, 32 HR and 7 SB.
What does that mean for Reynolds in 2011? His stock is lower than Paris Hilton's sense of decency and he could end up as a draft day bargain. His ISO remained intact so the power is still there. It seems Reynolds tried to be more patient at the plate by increasing his walk rate 2.4%. Being patient is fine for some hitters but for a whiff prone player like Reynolds this just leads to more 2 strike counts and an obvious increase in strikeouts. If Reynolds drops his walk rate to the 10% range from the 13.9% he posted in 2010 he could actually see his K-rate drop as well.
Much of the low batting average can be blamed on a .257 BABIP after averaging .348 the 3 previous years. With a BABIP around .320 he could post an AVG near .260 and with an ISO around .230 that could mean a chance at 40 HR. However there is still the possibility that his K-rate doesn't rebound as pitchers center in on the holes in his swing. With a few improvements and some luck Mark Reynolds could find himself flirting with another top 5 fantasy 3B ranking or he could just as easily struggle to make any contact and lose playing time to Josh Bell. The bust prediction would reflect this scenario. I am counting on something like .245AVG/36HR/100RBI/89R/10SB
Upside Projection: .256AVG/42HR/105RBI/94R/13SB
Bust Prediction: .229/20HR/54RBI/4SB
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