It's fitting Mark Reynolds would be the first subject in my Boom or Bust series since he can certainly bring the boom but also the bust.
Smashing 44 home runs in 2009 and swiping 24 bags made Reynolds a fantasy star at third base. Regression was to be expected but many were surprised when Reynolds limped to the finish line with a .198 AVG, 32 HR and 7 SB.
What does that mean for Reynolds in 2011? His stock is lower than Paris Hilton's sense of decency and he could end up as a draft day bargain. His ISO remained intact so the power is still there. It seems Reynolds tried to be more patient at the plate by increasing his walk rate 2.4%. Being patient is fine for some hitters but for a whiff prone player like Reynolds this just leads to more 2 strike counts and an obvious increase in strikeouts. If Reynolds drops his walk rate to the 10% range from the 13.9% he posted in 2010 he could actually see his K-rate drop as well.
Much of the low batting average can be blamed on a .257 BABIP after averaging .348 the 3 previous years. With a BABIP around .320 he could post an AVG near .260 and with an ISO around .230 that could mean a chance at 40 HR. However there is still the possibility that his K-rate doesn't rebound as pitchers center in on the holes in his swing. With a few improvements and some luck Mark Reynolds could find himself flirting with another top 5 fantasy 3B ranking or he could just as easily struggle to make any contact and lose playing time to Josh Bell.
Boom Prediction: 612 AB/154H/.252/37HR/93RBI/10SB
Bust Prediction: 410 AB/94H/.229/20HR/54RBI/4SB
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