Welcome to the first in a series of 2011 position rankings. Below are my thoughts on each player and how I see them performing in 2011. The projected ceilings are what the player is capable of if they have a healthy season and perform at their peak level with a bit of luck going their way. Most players won't reach their ceiling but I wouldn't rule it out. Their basement projection is how I see them performing if they were banged up for much of the season but still managed to get nearly a full season's worth of plate appearances. They could go lower but it would be due to an injury that I have no way of foreseeing. I will also toss in the odd injury prediction and playing time increase prognostication. I have a word a day calendar, any guesses on what today's word is? If you guessed 'increase' then congratulations. And now for the rankings.
1. Joe Mauer - The number one spot is a toss up Between Mauer, Martinez and McCann. Mauer has the best average, McCann the best power and Martinez the best mix of both. Joe Mauer has clearly shown the AVG is for real and 2009's hint at hidden power potential is too enticing. The power Mauer displayed in 2009 looks unlikely to repeat itself and we should expect something in the teens instead but he does have low 20s upside. He should be expected to maintain the high batting average but a drop in AVG along with his lack of power could put him near the bottom of the top tier or maybe even a dip into tier 2. I see something along the lines of .320/16HR/80RBI/90R.
Projected Ceiling: .340AVG/25HR/93RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .305AVG/11HR/73RBI/79R
2. Victor Martinez - I nearly put V-Mart at the top of the list because he is a bit better in the AVG department than Brian McCann and better in the power department than Joe Mauer, however, I just don't see Martinez being the top Catcher at the end of the year. But there is a case for it. The move to Detroit where he will be used primarily as a DH gives him a big boost in plate appearances and a better chance at a healthy season but he is getting on in years and a decline could be just around the corner. I predict him finishing with something like .292AVG/23HR/95RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/26HR/101RBI/84R
Possible Basement: .280AVG/18HR/80RBI/70R
3. Brian McCann - Brian McCann could be in line for some big HR numbers as he approaches his peak years. Maybe because he has performed so consistently at such a high level we forget he is still only 27 heading into 2011. If he can find that extra strength during the next few seasons like similar players his age have done in the past we could see McCann inching closer to 30 HR. McCann's BABIP has remained stable and aside from 2010 his batting average has stayed close to his BABIP. This means an average around .280-.290 can be expected with his AVG rising or dropping depending on how many HRs he hits. The BABIP/AVG difference in 2010 is a bit worrisome as it could mean McCann is starting to slow. I'm not too worried about it and I'm looking for McCann to give me .290AVG/26HR/90RBI/67R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/31HR/102RBI/77R
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/84RBI/64R
4. Buster Posey - 2010 NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds. Draft him hoping for something along the lines of .300AVG/20HR/83RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R
5. Geovany Soto - Injuries robbed Soto of a good portion of 2010 but they didn't stop him from re-establishing himself as one of the game's better offensive catchers. He looks like another Brian McCann except a year older, injury prone, and a teeny bit less power. If all things fall in place for him and he avoids the injury bug he would easily rank top 5 and probably higher. If you like his chances of staying healthy then he belongs in the top five but if you're concerned about another banged up season then feel free to knock him down a few notches. My guess for 2011: .270AVG/21HR/77RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/25HR/85RBI/72R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/16HR/68RBI/59R
6. Carlos Santana - My gut tells me this ranking is too low and he should be ahead of Soto and maybe even Posey but I'm going to take the cautious route with Santana because I don't expect him to play as many games as the competition. Reports are he is recovering nicely from the knee injury that ended his season last year and he should be ready for spring training. This bodes well for his performance but I think he will need extra time off here and there to get back to full strength. Or if he does play often his production will dip as his body takes more wear and tear. Santana looked solid in his debut last year showing off a strong eye and power to spare. He could explode up the charts this year but I expect a more steady climb to his superstar potential. My crystal ball tells me .282AVG/17HR/76RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .295AVG/23HR/86RBI/74R
Sophmore Adjustment and return from injury Projection: .278AVG/15HR/70RBI/60R
7. Kurt Suzuki - The Oakland catcher had a strong first half but faded after the break. Rather than a change in skills this may have to do with his grandfather passing away. We saw Joey Votto struggling with his father passing away so we should expect Suzuki to rebound in 2011. He gives you a decent batting average and some power. He gains an edge by receiving a large amount of playing time compared to most backstops. HE seems to have settled into his range of production so his ceiling and basement are quite close. Barring an injury that I have no way of forecasting I feel comfortable counting on Suzuki to give me .272AVG/15HR/75RBI/68R in 2011.
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/17HR/85RBI/74R
Possible Basement: .268AVG/13HR/70RBI/65R
8. Mike Napoli - Napoli is the best power hitting catcher in baseball and because of that he should be on your radar. However, power hitting is about all he does well and this limits his value because it keeps him from playing as much as the big boys of the position. Napoli saw an increase in playing time last year as he got extra at bats at first base. In 2011 he should get plenty of plate appearances splitting time between catcher, 1B and DH. He could see a big boost in his numbers if he hits higher in the order in 2011 so be on the lookout for that because it could lead to him getting near his ceiling projection. In 2011 he is likely to produce something in the range of .260AVG/25HR/73RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .268AVG/28HR/90RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/20HR/72RBI/59R
9. Miguel Montero - Heading into 2010 Miguel Montero was praised but disappointed fantasy owners by getting injured and producing middling numbers when in the lineup. Heading into 2011 he has the upside to climb the ranking board but I wouldn't count on it. His contact rate slumped big time last season and it's not like he has the speed to add a couple hits to make up for the damage poor contact does to a batting average. He does have above average power for a catcher and he hits in the middle of the Diamondbacks order so he should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Kurt Suzuki's 2009 is a prime example of what a catcher with middling power and contact can do in the heart of an order. I'm looking for Montero to produce .268AVG/15HR/72RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .276AVG/19HR/82RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .259AVG/14HR/74RBI/70R
10. Matt Wieters - Wieters' star has faded after his much ballyhooed debut. Now could be the time to buy in on Wieters since this could be the lowest his value will be for the next decade or so. Then again the past two years could be his true talent level showing. I expect Wieters to improve and he could be the next Brian McCann type. Draft him hoping for .268AVG/16HR/68RBI/55R and you won't be disappointed when he tops it.
Ceiling Projection: .274AVG/22HR/78RBI/62R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/15HR/66RBI/55R
If you think some deserves to be higher or lower on the list please feel free to let me know in the comments. I will be adding rankings 11-20 to this post shortly so please check back for that. I will be posting the first few players in my 1B rankings later and will continue to add player evaluations as I get the chance. I should have all positions ranked around the start of spring training and will continue to post updates. Thanks for reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment