Tuesday, January 18, 2011

2011 Shortstop Rankings

1. Hanley Ramirez - Hanley gets the nod over Tulo by a hair. The Marlins 5-Tool stud took a step back last year posting the lowest ISO and BABIP numbers of his career. Ramirez's BABIP probably won't rise too much but the power should return if his elbow is completely healed and he puts the ball in the air as often as in seasons past. No other SS has 30-30 potential so you gotta go with him until he proves otherwise. .305/26HR/85RBI/111R/30SB

Upside Projection: .328AVG/30HR/105RBI/128R/34SB
Possible Basement: .296AVG/23HR/75RBI/95R/28SB

2. Troy Tulowitzki - Tulo has more power than Hanley but less AVG upside and fewer steals. An epic September by Tulo closed the gap between the the top two shortstops and led to some crowning him as the top SS for the upcoming season. The problem is the hot final month made people forget that for the rest of the season no one would have considered ranking him above Ramirez. .296AVG/30HR/94RBI/102R/13SB

Upside Projection: .310AVG/35HR/106RBI/109R/16SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/25HR/94RBI/94R/8SB

3. Jose Reyes - The former fantasy elite made a nice return last year but can no longer be included among the game's upper echelon. He still provides heaps of value at the shallow shortstop position. 2010's numbers are pretty good baseline for what to expect but don't count on much more. Some of the speed might return as he's another year removed from the leg woes that slowed him but the days of 60+ thefts are gone. .290AVG/10HR/60RBI/98R/35SB

Upside Projection: .300AVG/13HR/68RBI/110R/45SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/7HR/55RBI/90R/30SB

4. Alexei Ramirez - Having the cuban ranked this high shows just how weak the position is. Ramirez is solid but doesn't stand out in any one category. He won't hurt you but don't look for any upside. I see him posting something near .286AVG/17HR/75RBI/80R/12SB

Upside Projection: .296AVG/20HR/80RBI/87R/15SB
Possible Basement: .278AVG/16HR/70RBI/80R/9SB

5. Derek Jeter - Mr. Yankee will rank higher on a lot of lists but I'm not as optimistic for a rebound as most. His second half numbers were atrocious (2HR .258AVG) and the power disappeared even with an increase in flyballs. He still has some speed and he should improve his numbers a bit but 2010 will probably be more of the norm for him. At 37 there is also the chance that his second half numbers are here to stay. I see .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB

Upside Projection: .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB
Possible Basement: .268AVG/8HR/60RBI/100R/12SB

6. Jimmy Rollins - This ranking is based on past performance and a potential bounce-back rather than my outlook on his future. The former MVP struggled with injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. He will likely return to form somewhat but another injury and his fantasy value could drop more than a Barry Zito curveball. I see something along the lines of his 2008 with less speed. .275AVG/12HR/68RBI/88R/25SB

Upside Projection: .280AVG/15HR/70RBI/90R/30SB
Possible Basement: .255AVG/7HR/54RBI/80R/20SB

7. Jhonny Peralta - This may be an over-ranking but I like what I saw in the second half and I really liked what I saw after the move to Detroit. He also gains points for being eligible at 3B which could provide flexibility in your lineup. Because of this dual eligibility Peralta actually was one of the most valuable players on my team last year. I bet you never thought you'd read that about a team that finished second. He'll give you above average HR and RBI totals if you can swallow the low average. He has the potential to make this an under-ranking come the end of the season. .266AVG/20HR/85RBI/72R

Upside Projection: .269AVG/24HR/90RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/16HR/74RBI/65R

8. Stephen Drew - The Diamondback shortstop has tantalized fantasy owners ever since he put up 21HR, a .291 AVG and 91R in 2008 but has failed to replicate those numbers. Eventually people are going to have to come to terms that Drew isn't going to be the answer for them at SS. He's a good bet to top 10 at the position but he's best used as filler who won't hurt you but prepare for disappointment if you're expecting another 2008. .276AVG/14HR/66RBI/82R/8SB

Upside Projection: .284AVG/19HR/75RBI/90R/10SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/14HR/60RBI/80R/6SB

9. Ian Desmond - Desmond had a fine rookie season and should be a useful fantasy option. He is similar in skills to Drew with less AVG and more steals. The Nationals youngster could improve in 2011 but don't ask for too much. .265AVG/15HR/68RBI/80R/20SB

Upside Projection: .270AVG/16HR/74RBI/85R/24SB
Possible Basement: .250AVG/11HR/60RBI/75R/16SB

10. Elvis Andrus - I went back and forth on who to put in the #10 spot because there are a number of players you could argue belong on the list. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Bartlett could bounce-back, Miguel Tejada, the ageless wonder (literally and figuratively) could continue hitting well, Starlin Castro has upside and Marco Scutaro is decent and hits in a powerful lineup. Instead I went with Andrus because he has room for improvement. He could improve the AVG while adding some power to his already good SB numbers. I expect him to be good for .270AVG/3HR/45RBI/98R/40SB

Upside Projection: .285AVG/5HR/52RBI/110R/42SB
Possible Basement: .260AVG/0HR/35RBI/85R/30SB

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