Welcome to the 2011 3B rankings. The position is led by a trio of young studs and is littered with declining veterans. The position is deep if you're into decent players with lots of question marks attached. I've included a blurb with each top 10 player and projections of where I see them in 2011 as well as Upside projections and a Bust prediction. The upside is what I see as the best case scenario for them if everything falls in place. These numbers are ones I would be surprised to see topped but are a possibility. The bust predictions are numbers I could see them producing over a full season where they are banged up but playing nearly a full schedule. They could go lower than these stats but that would most likely involve an injury that I have no way of foreseeing. The Upside and Bust numbers give a good idea of the risk involved with the player with the more consistent players having a smaller gap whereas the riskier guys have a bigger gap. Please feel free to comment on any of the projections or if you think I over-ranked or under-ranked anyone please let me know.
1. David Wright - Wright had a nice return to form after his power went on sabbatical in 2009. He seems to have adjusted to Citi Field's dimensions and is once again a potential 30 HR man. The thing that gives him the slight edge over Longoria is the 20 SB potential. Wright does have his red flags though as his K-rate continues to rise and there's the chance the power takes another dip. I'm not too worried but I wouldn't blame you for taking Longoria over Wright. .286AVG/28HR.109RBI/99R/20SB
Upside Projection: .312AVG/30HR/115RBI/108R/26SB
Bust Prediction: .278AVG/23HR/94RBI/90R/15SB
2. Evan Longoria - A drop in power knocked Longoria from the top spot but the odds are he improves on his HR numbers in 2011. Losing Crawford could hurt his RBI totals but I'm not too worried. The 15 SB were a nice surprise but I'm not counting on a repeat although his success rate could mean even more to come. As far as upside goes Longoria takes the cake over Wright and Zimmerman as he has 35+ HR potential. I'm going for something in the neighborhood of .282AVG/32HR/104RBI/100R/11SB
Upside Projection: .308AVG/36HR/117RBI/104R/20SB
Bust Prediction: .280AVG/25HR/97RBI/90R/8SB
3. Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman's glove seems to get him over-ranked in fantasy. He's a solid performer but not in the same class as Longoria and Wright. What you've seen from him the past couple years is what you can pretty much expect. Still only 26 there is room for improvement but I'm not holding my breath. .302AVG/30HR/104RBI/99R
Upside Projection: .310AVG/34HR/109RBI/107R
Bust Prediction: .286AVG/27HR/95RBI/92R
4. Alex Rodriguez - Hitting in the heart of the Yankees lineup is sure to provide a plethora of points for your fantasy team, however, A-Rod needs to stay healthy in order to do this. Rodriguez's power has been in decline the past few years and 30 HR is no longer a given. He should remain valuable but don't expect 1st round production. A-Rod's bust projection is based on missing about 40 games. If he plays 140-150 games I expect .280AVG/30HR/115RBI/90R
Upside Projection: .295AVG/34HR/120RBI/100R
Bust Prediction: .276AVG/25HR/96RBI/81R
5. Kevin Youkilis - In some leagues Youk may not be eligible for 3B until later in the season but once he does his value will rise dramatically. Some H2H players may want to draft Youkilis as their third baseman then pick up a stop gap in the later rounds to hold the spot til he is eligible. I expect a full recovery and 25+ HR with something around 200 RBI/R. .304AVG/25HR/97RBI/101R
Upside Projection: .312AVG/30HR/112RBI/110R
Bust Prediction: .294AVG/23HR/94RBI/92R
6. Jose Bautista - I'm more of a believer in Bautista sustaining his 2010 levels than most. No, I don't think he'll hit 54 HR again but I do think he's a 40 HR guy. Even before his breakout in september 2009 I was impressed with his eye at the plate. I believe this is the biggest factor to his success. He could see the ball well and once he learned to get the bat moving earlier he found lighting in a bottle. See the ball, unleash hell on it. Joey Bats is a big risk in the first round or two but could pay off huge. .254AVG/41HR/107RBI/94R
Upside Projection: .265AVG/42HR/114RBI/98R
Bust Prediction: .240AVG/28HR/82RBI/79R
7. Adrian Beltre - A bit of luck on balls in play and added RBI opportunities due to the lineup he was in hid the fact that 2010 was mostly another typical Beltre season. He'll give you mid-20 HR totals with a rosterable AVG and a good number of RBIs. I'm not counting on a repeat in the AVG and RBI departments and expect a year in line with what he did from 2006-08. Let someone over-pay to be disappointed. .282AVG/26HR/95RBI/83R
Upside Projection: .290AVG/28HR/98RBI/85R
Bust Prediction: .265AVG/24HR/88RBI/77R
8. Pedro Alvarez - Pedro Alvarez is a breakout waiting to happen. With fantastic power numbers in the minors he made his way to the majors quickly and after a slow debut month he really turned it on. Having Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata hitting in front of him will provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Only 24 on opening day Alvarez will run into some bumps in the road but that road could lead to consistent 30+ HR seasons. But for 2011 with such poor protection in the Pirates' lineup he will probably fall short of 30 unless he catches fire for an extended period of time during the season. .260AVG/26HR/92RBI/73R
Upside Projection: 576AB/158H/.274AVG/33HR/104RBI/78R
Bust Prediction: 522AB/133H/.250AVG/23HR/83RBI/65R
9. Aramis Ramirez - Aramis Ramirez was hindered by injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. A slight return of his AVG should be expected as he posted .241 AVG after batting .289 or higher for the past 6 seasons. The power is still there so a HR total in the high 20s is likely. A horrendous first half disguised an excellent second half that proves there's still something left in the tank. He could, however, miss more time to injuries and continue to decline. If he remains healthy he will be a solid bat but that is a major if. Chances are A-Ram doesn't go the entire season without hitting the DL. The bust numbers include about 40-50 games missed. If healthy I expect .280AVG/26HR/96RBI/72R
Upside Projection: .289AVG/29HR/104RBI/77R
Bust Prediction: .260AVG/14HR/43RBI/38R
10. Mark Reynolds - Smashing 44 home runs in 2009 and swiping 24 bags made Reynolds a fantasy star at third base. Regression was to be expected but many were surprised when Reynolds limped to the finish line with a .198 AVG, 32 HR and 7 SB.
What does that mean for Reynolds in 2011? His stock is lower than Paris Hilton's sense of decency and he could end up as a draft day bargain. His ISO remained intact so the power is still there. It seems Reynolds tried to be more patient at the plate by increasing his walk rate 2.4%. Being patient is fine for some hitters but for a whiff prone player like Reynolds this just leads to more 2 strike counts and an obvious increase in strikeouts. If Reynolds drops his walk rate to the 10% range from the 13.9% he posted in 2010 he could actually see his K-rate drop as well.
Much of the low batting average can be blamed on a .257 BABIP after averaging .348 the 3 previous years. With a BABIP around .320 he could post an AVG near .260 and with an ISO around .230 that could mean a chance at 40 HR. However there is still the possibility that his K-rate doesn't rebound as pitchers center in on the holes in his swing. With a few improvements and some luck Mark Reynolds could find himself flirting with another top 5 fantasy 3B ranking or he could just as easily struggle to make any contact and lose playing time to Josh Bell. The bust prediction would reflect this scenario. I am counting on something like .245AVG/36HR/100RBI/89R/10SB
Upside Projection: .256AVG/42HR/105RBI/94R/13SB
Bust Prediction: .229/20HR/54RBI/4SB
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
2011 Shortstop Rankings
1. Hanley Ramirez - Hanley gets the nod over Tulo by a hair. The Marlins 5-Tool stud took a step back last year posting the lowest ISO and BABIP numbers of his career. Ramirez's BABIP probably won't rise too much but the power should return if his elbow is completely healed and he puts the ball in the air as often as in seasons past. No other SS has 30-30 potential so you gotta go with him until he proves otherwise. .305/26HR/85RBI/111R/30SB
Upside Projection: .328AVG/30HR/105RBI/128R/34SB
Possible Basement: .296AVG/23HR/75RBI/95R/28SB
2. Troy Tulowitzki - Tulo has more power than Hanley but less AVG upside and fewer steals. An epic September by Tulo closed the gap between the the top two shortstops and led to some crowning him as the top SS for the upcoming season. The problem is the hot final month made people forget that for the rest of the season no one would have considered ranking him above Ramirez. .296AVG/30HR/94RBI/102R/13SB
Upside Projection: .310AVG/35HR/106RBI/109R/16SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/25HR/94RBI/94R/8SB
3. Jose Reyes - The former fantasy elite made a nice return last year but can no longer be included among the game's upper echelon. He still provides heaps of value at the shallow shortstop position. 2010's numbers are pretty good baseline for what to expect but don't count on much more. Some of the speed might return as he's another year removed from the leg woes that slowed him but the days of 60+ thefts are gone. .290AVG/10HR/60RBI/98R/35SB
Upside Projection: .300AVG/13HR/68RBI/110R/45SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/7HR/55RBI/90R/30SB
4. Alexei Ramirez - Having the cuban ranked this high shows just how weak the position is. Ramirez is solid but doesn't stand out in any one category. He won't hurt you but don't look for any upside. I see him posting something near .286AVG/17HR/75RBI/80R/12SB
Upside Projection: .296AVG/20HR/80RBI/87R/15SB
Possible Basement: .278AVG/16HR/70RBI/80R/9SB
5. Derek Jeter - Mr. Yankee will rank higher on a lot of lists but I'm not as optimistic for a rebound as most. His second half numbers were atrocious (2HR .258AVG) and the power disappeared even with an increase in flyballs. He still has some speed and he should improve his numbers a bit but 2010 will probably be more of the norm for him. At 37 there is also the chance that his second half numbers are here to stay. I see .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB
Upside Projection: .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB
Possible Basement: .268AVG/8HR/60RBI/100R/12SB
6. Jimmy Rollins - This ranking is based on past performance and a potential bounce-back rather than my outlook on his future. The former MVP struggled with injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. He will likely return to form somewhat but another injury and his fantasy value could drop more than a Barry Zito curveball. I see something along the lines of his 2008 with less speed. .275AVG/12HR/68RBI/88R/25SB
Upside Projection: .280AVG/15HR/70RBI/90R/30SB
Possible Basement: .255AVG/7HR/54RBI/80R/20SB
7. Jhonny Peralta - This may be an over-ranking but I like what I saw in the second half and I really liked what I saw after the move to Detroit. He also gains points for being eligible at 3B which could provide flexibility in your lineup. Because of this dual eligibility Peralta actually was one of the most valuable players on my team last year. I bet you never thought you'd read that about a team that finished second. He'll give you above average HR and RBI totals if you can swallow the low average. He has the potential to make this an under-ranking come the end of the season. .266AVG/20HR/85RBI/72R
Upside Projection: .269AVG/24HR/90RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/16HR/74RBI/65R
8. Stephen Drew - The Diamondback shortstop has tantalized fantasy owners ever since he put up 21HR, a .291 AVG and 91R in 2008 but has failed to replicate those numbers. Eventually people are going to have to come to terms that Drew isn't going to be the answer for them at SS. He's a good bet to top 10 at the position but he's best used as filler who won't hurt you but prepare for disappointment if you're expecting another 2008. .276AVG/14HR/66RBI/82R/8SB
Upside Projection: .284AVG/19HR/75RBI/90R/10SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/14HR/60RBI/80R/6SB
9. Ian Desmond - Desmond had a fine rookie season and should be a useful fantasy option. He is similar in skills to Drew with less AVG and more steals. The Nationals youngster could improve in 2011 but don't ask for too much. .265AVG/15HR/68RBI/80R/20SB
Upside Projection: .270AVG/16HR/74RBI/85R/24SB
Possible Basement: .250AVG/11HR/60RBI/75R/16SB
10. Elvis Andrus - I went back and forth on who to put in the #10 spot because there are a number of players you could argue belong on the list. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Bartlett could bounce-back, Miguel Tejada, the ageless wonder (literally and figuratively) could continue hitting well, Starlin Castro has upside and Marco Scutaro is decent and hits in a powerful lineup. Instead I went with Andrus because he has room for improvement. He could improve the AVG while adding some power to his already good SB numbers. I expect him to be good for .270AVG/3HR/45RBI/98R/40SB
Upside Projection: .285AVG/5HR/52RBI/110R/42SB
Possible Basement: .260AVG/0HR/35RBI/85R/30SB
Upside Projection: .328AVG/30HR/105RBI/128R/34SB
Possible Basement: .296AVG/23HR/75RBI/95R/28SB
2. Troy Tulowitzki - Tulo has more power than Hanley but less AVG upside and fewer steals. An epic September by Tulo closed the gap between the the top two shortstops and led to some crowning him as the top SS for the upcoming season. The problem is the hot final month made people forget that for the rest of the season no one would have considered ranking him above Ramirez. .296AVG/30HR/94RBI/102R/13SB
Upside Projection: .310AVG/35HR/106RBI/109R/16SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/25HR/94RBI/94R/8SB
3. Jose Reyes - The former fantasy elite made a nice return last year but can no longer be included among the game's upper echelon. He still provides heaps of value at the shallow shortstop position. 2010's numbers are pretty good baseline for what to expect but don't count on much more. Some of the speed might return as he's another year removed from the leg woes that slowed him but the days of 60+ thefts are gone. .290AVG/10HR/60RBI/98R/35SB
Upside Projection: .300AVG/13HR/68RBI/110R/45SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/7HR/55RBI/90R/30SB
4. Alexei Ramirez - Having the cuban ranked this high shows just how weak the position is. Ramirez is solid but doesn't stand out in any one category. He won't hurt you but don't look for any upside. I see him posting something near .286AVG/17HR/75RBI/80R/12SB
Upside Projection: .296AVG/20HR/80RBI/87R/15SB
Possible Basement: .278AVG/16HR/70RBI/80R/9SB
5. Derek Jeter - Mr. Yankee will rank higher on a lot of lists but I'm not as optimistic for a rebound as most. His second half numbers were atrocious (2HR .258AVG) and the power disappeared even with an increase in flyballs. He still has some speed and he should improve his numbers a bit but 2010 will probably be more of the norm for him. At 37 there is also the chance that his second half numbers are here to stay. I see .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB
Upside Projection: .280AVG/10HR/65RBI/105R/15SB
Possible Basement: .268AVG/8HR/60RBI/100R/12SB
6. Jimmy Rollins - This ranking is based on past performance and a potential bounce-back rather than my outlook on his future. The former MVP struggled with injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. He will likely return to form somewhat but another injury and his fantasy value could drop more than a Barry Zito curveball. I see something along the lines of his 2008 with less speed. .275AVG/12HR/68RBI/88R/25SB
Upside Projection: .280AVG/15HR/70RBI/90R/30SB
Possible Basement: .255AVG/7HR/54RBI/80R/20SB
7. Jhonny Peralta - This may be an over-ranking but I like what I saw in the second half and I really liked what I saw after the move to Detroit. He also gains points for being eligible at 3B which could provide flexibility in your lineup. Because of this dual eligibility Peralta actually was one of the most valuable players on my team last year. I bet you never thought you'd read that about a team that finished second. He'll give you above average HR and RBI totals if you can swallow the low average. He has the potential to make this an under-ranking come the end of the season. .266AVG/20HR/85RBI/72R
Upside Projection: .269AVG/24HR/90RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/16HR/74RBI/65R
8. Stephen Drew - The Diamondback shortstop has tantalized fantasy owners ever since he put up 21HR, a .291 AVG and 91R in 2008 but has failed to replicate those numbers. Eventually people are going to have to come to terms that Drew isn't going to be the answer for them at SS. He's a good bet to top 10 at the position but he's best used as filler who won't hurt you but prepare for disappointment if you're expecting another 2008. .276AVG/14HR/66RBI/82R/8SB
Upside Projection: .284AVG/19HR/75RBI/90R/10SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/14HR/60RBI/80R/6SB
9. Ian Desmond - Desmond had a fine rookie season and should be a useful fantasy option. He is similar in skills to Drew with less AVG and more steals. The Nationals youngster could improve in 2011 but don't ask for too much. .265AVG/15HR/68RBI/80R/20SB
Upside Projection: .270AVG/16HR/74RBI/85R/24SB
Possible Basement: .250AVG/11HR/60RBI/75R/16SB
10. Elvis Andrus - I went back and forth on who to put in the #10 spot because there are a number of players you could argue belong on the list. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Bartlett could bounce-back, Miguel Tejada, the ageless wonder (literally and figuratively) could continue hitting well, Starlin Castro has upside and Marco Scutaro is decent and hits in a powerful lineup. Instead I went with Andrus because he has room for improvement. He could improve the AVG while adding some power to his already good SB numbers. I expect him to be good for .270AVG/3HR/45RBI/98R/40SB
Upside Projection: .285AVG/5HR/52RBI/110R/42SB
Possible Basement: .260AVG/0HR/35RBI/85R/30SB
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Fantasy Forecasts: 2011 Second Base Rankings
1. Robinson Cano - The Yankee second baseman finished third in AL MVP voting in 2010 and will garner a lot of attention in drafts this year. His numbers were very similar to 2009 and the rise in BB% is a good sign. The added walks kept pitchers honest with him and also allowed him to move into a better batting position for runs and rbis. Cano's HR/FB should drop a bit so don't expect more power but everything else should remain mostly the same. I would wager on him producing .305AVG/25HR/102RBI/100R
Upside Projection: .314AVG/27HR/108RBI/104R
Possible Basement: .292AVG/23HR/94RBI/95R
2. Chase Utley - I am wary of ranking Utley this high because I'm not so certain he will return to his elite form but the guy is so gritty and a warrior that you gotta give him the benefit of the doubt. He has played through injuries his entire career so why should a little thumb injury slow him down? Even if he doesn't return to 100% of his old self he'll still be good enough that he won't hurt your fantasy team. Look for something like .280/24HR/91RBI/99R/12SB
Upside Projection: .290AVG/28HR/104RBI/111R/15SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/90RBI/92R/8SB
3. Dustin Pedroia - I really want Pedroia on my fantasy team this year. As a Jays fan it pains me to admire a division rival so much but the little tyke can flat out play. He's one of the hardest workers in baseball and when he sees a weakness in his game he fixes it. Last year he said he wanted to hit for more power and went yard a dozen times by the break before a foot injury ended his season. I thought about ranking him #1 but I'm a bit worried about what the injury will do for his speed and it may take him a bit of time to get back in a groove. I believe in the newfound power and I think he has an outside (Rick Vaughn fastball outside)shot at 30HR although I see something more like 22-25 being realistic. Hitting at the top of the Red Sox lineup he'll give you runs like he was Mexican drinking water. I'm projecting .308AVG/23HR/84RBI/118R/16SB
Upside Projection: .318AVG/28HR/94RBI/125R/24SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/15HR/79RBI/95R/10SB
4. Dan Uggla - Uggla is ranked this high simply because he is baseball's most consistent power hitting second baseman. You can count on him going deep more often that a Maori porn star but he also gives you about as many hits as Lil Peanut. Who? Exactly. .255AVG/32HR/106RBI/97R
Upside Projection:.275AVG/36HR/115RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .250AVG/29HR/98RBI/86R
5. Ian Kinsler - I considered ranking Kinsler lower but he has more upside than any of the players below him. He has above average contact skills which could mean a high batting average however he tends to put the ball in the air a lot which will bring the AVG down. He struggled to get the ball out of the park last year with only 6% of his flyballs leaving the yard. If he can get that back up to his career average around 10% he will return to the upper tier of power hitting two-baggers. If healthy in 2011 he should be higher on next year's list and has a chance at going 25-25. A lot of people will be turned off by his so-so 2010 numbers which means he could be a real bargain if still around later in the draft. If healthy I think he's good for .285AVG/20HR/70RBI/105R/22SB
Upside Projection: .305AVG/27HR/90RBI/115R/25SB
Possible Basement: .265AVG/16HR/65RBI/85R/18SB
6. Brandon Phillips - Phillips may be trending downward but he should remain a dependable fantasy asset in 2011. He had an outstanding first half but was banged up during the second half and faded. His SB success was rate was terrible and may lead to him getting the red light more often. He often hit leadoff but his skill-set is better suited in the #2 spot. Either way he is going to score lots of runs at the top of a powerful Reds lineup. I expect his HR numbers to bounce back a bit but I'll wait and see about the SB. .278AVG/22HR/74RBI/102R/18SB (The runs and rbi totals are assuming he stays in the #1 hole)
Upside Projection: .280AVG/25HR/84RBI/108R/23SB
Possible Basement: .269AVG/18HR/70RBI/88R/14SB
7. Martin Prado - Breaking out big in 2010 Martin Prado was a top 10 fantasy performer at 3B and 2B. Toss in 1B eligibility and Prado's value went beyond the numerous points he brought your team. Heading into his age 27 season we could see Prado build on his strong 2010.
With an AVG over .300 for 3 successive years we can safely assume he can maintain those numbers. He shocked many by adding pop to the high batting average by going yard 15 times last season. He tailed off after the all-star break hitting only 5 dingers but that could be explained by the fact that he was fairly banged up. Health seems to be the only thing standing in the way of Prado taking another step forward in 2011. While he is probably close to his ceiling he is a safe bet to be a top 10 2B performer again. He retains #B eligibility further boosting his value. I foresee something near .310AVG/17HR/74RBI/98R
Upside Projection: .319AVG/21HR/83RBI/112R/7SB
Possible Basement: .301AVG/9HR/64RBI/84R/4SB
8. Rickie Weeks - Finally healthy for an entire season Rickie Weeks put up monster numbers in 2010 nearly doubling his career high in HRs going from 16 to 29. This makes it appear he is due for a drop back into the teens but his ISO was actually 3 points higher in 2007 when he only launched 16 over the wall. Rickie should be good for 20-25 HR. Weeks has been an extremely proficient base stealer with a career 82% success rate but only swiped 11 in 2010. If given a chance to run a jump to 20 SB is a real possibility. The strikeouts will keep the average down and I'm expecting the BABIP to drop to about .300 which will bring his AVG down toward the .250s. The AVG could go even lower if he fails to repeat the power numbers from last year.
We also can't forget about the injury history.
I think Weeks has great power and is a threat on the basepaths but the big split between his upside and basement numbers shows the amount of risk involved in drafting Weeks. I would keep his basement numbers in mind on draft day since they are just as likely as another monster year. Count on something around .260AVG/20HR/73RBI/95R/20SB
Upside Projection: 647AB/172H/.266AVG/28HR/86RBI/110R/25SB
Possible Basement: 510AB/123H/.238AVG/16HR/64RBI/83R/12SB
9. Kelly Johnson - Kelly Johnson's power surge looked to be due to a move to a more hitter friendly park in Arizona with 16 of 26 coming in the Grand Canyon state. He also sported an out-of-character 15.6% HR/FB which should come back down to earth a bit. Heading into 2011 he should see a slight dip in power while maintaining the AVG. I wouldn't expect anything more than what he did in 2010 but he should be a solid fantasy 2B ranking in the bottom half of the top 10. I project .277AVG/19HR/74RBI/83R/13SB
Boom Prediction: 600AB/168H/.285AVG/23HR/85RBI/88R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 540AB145H/.266AVG/16HR/69RBI/80R/7SB
10. Aaron Hill - Aaron Hill may have been the biggest letdown in fantasy baseball in 2010. He remained powerful but his batting average suffered due to putting everything in the air. Hill has a smooth swing and is a better hitter than his AVG suggests. I believe he is a .270 20HR hitter which is good but not great. He is a safe bet to be an above average performer but it is unlikely he will be a dominating force like he was in 2009. Aim for something in the neighborhood of .268AVG/25HR/85RBI/80R
Boom Prediction: 645AB/180H/.279AVG/29HR/95RBI/92R
Bust Prediction: 505AB/132H/.261AVG/18HR/70RBI/74R
Upside Projection: .314AVG/27HR/108RBI/104R
Possible Basement: .292AVG/23HR/94RBI/95R
2. Chase Utley - I am wary of ranking Utley this high because I'm not so certain he will return to his elite form but the guy is so gritty and a warrior that you gotta give him the benefit of the doubt. He has played through injuries his entire career so why should a little thumb injury slow him down? Even if he doesn't return to 100% of his old self he'll still be good enough that he won't hurt your fantasy team. Look for something like .280/24HR/91RBI/99R/12SB
Upside Projection: .290AVG/28HR/104RBI/111R/15SB
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/90RBI/92R/8SB
3. Dustin Pedroia - I really want Pedroia on my fantasy team this year. As a Jays fan it pains me to admire a division rival so much but the little tyke can flat out play. He's one of the hardest workers in baseball and when he sees a weakness in his game he fixes it. Last year he said he wanted to hit for more power and went yard a dozen times by the break before a foot injury ended his season. I thought about ranking him #1 but I'm a bit worried about what the injury will do for his speed and it may take him a bit of time to get back in a groove. I believe in the newfound power and I think he has an outside (Rick Vaughn fastball outside)shot at 30HR although I see something more like 22-25 being realistic. Hitting at the top of the Red Sox lineup he'll give you runs like he was Mexican drinking water. I'm projecting .308AVG/23HR/84RBI/118R/16SB
Upside Projection: .318AVG/28HR/94RBI/125R/24SB
Possible Basement: .290AVG/15HR/79RBI/95R/10SB
4. Dan Uggla - Uggla is ranked this high simply because he is baseball's most consistent power hitting second baseman. You can count on him going deep more often that a Maori porn star but he also gives you about as many hits as Lil Peanut. Who? Exactly. .255AVG/32HR/106RBI/97R
Upside Projection:.275AVG/36HR/115RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .250AVG/29HR/98RBI/86R
5. Ian Kinsler - I considered ranking Kinsler lower but he has more upside than any of the players below him. He has above average contact skills which could mean a high batting average however he tends to put the ball in the air a lot which will bring the AVG down. He struggled to get the ball out of the park last year with only 6% of his flyballs leaving the yard. If he can get that back up to his career average around 10% he will return to the upper tier of power hitting two-baggers. If healthy in 2011 he should be higher on next year's list and has a chance at going 25-25. A lot of people will be turned off by his so-so 2010 numbers which means he could be a real bargain if still around later in the draft. If healthy I think he's good for .285AVG/20HR/70RBI/105R/22SB
Upside Projection: .305AVG/27HR/90RBI/115R/25SB
Possible Basement: .265AVG/16HR/65RBI/85R/18SB
6. Brandon Phillips - Phillips may be trending downward but he should remain a dependable fantasy asset in 2011. He had an outstanding first half but was banged up during the second half and faded. His SB success was rate was terrible and may lead to him getting the red light more often. He often hit leadoff but his skill-set is better suited in the #2 spot. Either way he is going to score lots of runs at the top of a powerful Reds lineup. I expect his HR numbers to bounce back a bit but I'll wait and see about the SB. .278AVG/22HR/74RBI/102R/18SB (The runs and rbi totals are assuming he stays in the #1 hole)
Upside Projection: .280AVG/25HR/84RBI/108R/23SB
Possible Basement: .269AVG/18HR/70RBI/88R/14SB
7. Martin Prado - Breaking out big in 2010 Martin Prado was a top 10 fantasy performer at 3B and 2B. Toss in 1B eligibility and Prado's value went beyond the numerous points he brought your team. Heading into his age 27 season we could see Prado build on his strong 2010.
With an AVG over .300 for 3 successive years we can safely assume he can maintain those numbers. He shocked many by adding pop to the high batting average by going yard 15 times last season. He tailed off after the all-star break hitting only 5 dingers but that could be explained by the fact that he was fairly banged up. Health seems to be the only thing standing in the way of Prado taking another step forward in 2011. While he is probably close to his ceiling he is a safe bet to be a top 10 2B performer again. He retains #B eligibility further boosting his value. I foresee something near .310AVG/17HR/74RBI/98R
Upside Projection: .319AVG/21HR/83RBI/112R/7SB
Possible Basement: .301AVG/9HR/64RBI/84R/4SB
8. Rickie Weeks - Finally healthy for an entire season Rickie Weeks put up monster numbers in 2010 nearly doubling his career high in HRs going from 16 to 29. This makes it appear he is due for a drop back into the teens but his ISO was actually 3 points higher in 2007 when he only launched 16 over the wall. Rickie should be good for 20-25 HR. Weeks has been an extremely proficient base stealer with a career 82% success rate but only swiped 11 in 2010. If given a chance to run a jump to 20 SB is a real possibility. The strikeouts will keep the average down and I'm expecting the BABIP to drop to about .300 which will bring his AVG down toward the .250s. The AVG could go even lower if he fails to repeat the power numbers from last year.
We also can't forget about the injury history.
I think Weeks has great power and is a threat on the basepaths but the big split between his upside and basement numbers shows the amount of risk involved in drafting Weeks. I would keep his basement numbers in mind on draft day since they are just as likely as another monster year. Count on something around .260AVG/20HR/73RBI/95R/20SB
Upside Projection: 647AB/172H/.266AVG/28HR/86RBI/110R/25SB
Possible Basement: 510AB/123H/.238AVG/16HR/64RBI/83R/12SB
9. Kelly Johnson - Kelly Johnson's power surge looked to be due to a move to a more hitter friendly park in Arizona with 16 of 26 coming in the Grand Canyon state. He also sported an out-of-character 15.6% HR/FB which should come back down to earth a bit. Heading into 2011 he should see a slight dip in power while maintaining the AVG. I wouldn't expect anything more than what he did in 2010 but he should be a solid fantasy 2B ranking in the bottom half of the top 10. I project .277AVG/19HR/74RBI/83R/13SB
Boom Prediction: 600AB/168H/.285AVG/23HR/85RBI/88R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 540AB145H/.266AVG/16HR/69RBI/80R/7SB
10. Aaron Hill - Aaron Hill may have been the biggest letdown in fantasy baseball in 2010. He remained powerful but his batting average suffered due to putting everything in the air. Hill has a smooth swing and is a better hitter than his AVG suggests. I believe he is a .270 20HR hitter which is good but not great. He is a safe bet to be an above average performer but it is unlikely he will be a dominating force like he was in 2009. Aim for something in the neighborhood of .268AVG/25HR/85RBI/80R
Boom Prediction: 645AB/180H/.279AVG/29HR/95RBI/92R
Bust Prediction: 505AB/132H/.261AVG/18HR/70RBI/74R
Fantasy Forecasts: 2011 First Base Rankings
1. Albert Pujols - Until he gives us a reason it's always a bad idea to bet against Pujols. He can't be this good forever but he doesn't seem to be slowing down yet. He is a triple crown threat every year and he adds double digit SB totals just to show you who's boss. The usual .325AVG/40HR/120RBI/105R/10SB should be in order.
Ceiling Projection: .335AVG/46HR/130RBI/120R/14SB
Possible Basement: .305AVG/34HR/110RBI/102R/4SB
1A. Miguel Cabrera - Miguel Cabrera is due for a coming out party. Sure he has been a top player for a long time but I still don't think he gets the credit he deserves. I think 2011 is the year all that changes when he passes Pujols as the #1 hitter in baseball. I see him being easily capable of .328AVG/43HR/130RBI/112R
Ceiling Projection: .338AVG/46HR/138RBI/118R
Possible Basement: .318AVG/35HR/115RBI/106R
3. Joey Votto - For some Votto's season came out of nowhere but it should have been expected. He has great contact skills and superb power. There is little reason to doubt he can repeat his 2010 performance or even build on it. The SB numbers should drop but everything else should stay relatively the same. .315AVG/35HR/118RBI/106R
Ceiling Projection: .329AVG/42HR/126RBI/106R
Possible Basement: .298/30HR/109RBI/96R
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Gonzalez's move to beantown makes him an interesting player to project. He will likely hit more home runs, RBIs and score more runs. He could be the next breakout star at 1B but he could also continue to produce solid numbers just outside of the top tier. The home runs will rise no doubt but it's his average that concerns me the most. The previous two seasons before last year he had struggled against lefties before hitting .337 against them. A jump of more than .100 means he must have improved his approach against lefties but it also means he probably got a bit lucky against them. He may not return to his 08-09 levels against southpaws but a drop from .337 can be expected and that will drive his AVG down and keep him out of elite company. But you never know what kind of an effect leaving Petco and joining a solid lineup could do for his numbers. He's a sleeper bet to be the #1 1B at season's end. Look for .285AVG/37HR/123RBI/100R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/46HR/135RBI/110R
Possible Basement: .276AVG/34HR/112RBI/94R
5. Mark Teixeira - Mark Teixeira has established a level of excellence that fantasy players have come to expect from the switch hitting slugger. 30 some odd home runs, 200+ Runs/RBI and so long as the BABIP fairy plays nice a .290+ AVG. Last season the BABIP fairy was a real bitch to Teixeira and his AVG dropped to .256. Look for the BABIP to normalize and a return to the .300 range. I foresee .292AVG/34HR/120RBI/111R
Ceiling Projection: .308AVG/37HR/134RBI/118R
Possible Basement: .280AVG/31HR/110RBI/103R
6. Prince Fielder - Prince Fielder struggled in 2010 after posting elite numbers in 2009. Still only 26 he should bounce back to stud status. His 2010 numbers should be his basement level of production and he could approach 50 HR if things go his way. .277AVG/40HR/128RBI/93R
Ceiling Projection: .290AVG/49HR/135RBI/102R
Possible Basement: .265AVG/34HR/104RBI/80R
7. Ryan Howard - Howard's power dropped off significantly in 2010 and many think this is the beginning of the end for the prodigious slugger. I am more optimistic for the slugger going into next year. The power came back for Ryan in the second half and he will be looking to bounce back in order to justify his massive contract. I predict something around .275AVG/36HR/120RBI/94R
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/46HR/125RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .265AVG/30HR/100RBI/85R
8. Kevin Youkilis - "Youk" missed the final two months of 2010 with a thumb injury and the health of his hand will determine what he's capable of in 2011. If he returns to 100% he could rank higher on the list at the end of the season. He should be counted on for a .300+ AVG and he could flirt with 30HR. I expect Youkilis to miss a few games here and there throughout the season and this should hold him back from being considered a dominant fantasy player next year. .308AVG/24HR/102RBI/90R
Ceiling Projection: .318AVG/30HR/110RBI/95R
Possible Basement: .295AVG/22HR/96RBI/80R
9. Adam Dunn - Big Donkey isn't going to improve his numbers much although the move to Chicago will help erase any regression that was going to occur. He has been the game's most consistent power hitter in baseball the past 7 years but he is 31 now and a drop in production is on its way. 2011 will probably be more of the same but if he spends significant time on the DL in the future it should spell the end of his 40+ HR power. .252AVG/39HR/106RBI/82R
Ceiling Projection: .272AVG/43HR/118RBI/85R
Possible Basement: .240AVG/35HR/100RBI/78R
10. Justin Morneau - Morneau was on an absolute tear when a concussion ended his season. He has MVP potential but the severity of the concussion raises some red flags about a full recovery. As long as Morneau is in the lineup he should produce and is a prime candidate to buy low and provide major return. .290AVG/28HR/103RBI/80R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/34HR/116RBI/90R
Possible Basement: .275AVG/26HR/99RBI/80R
Ceiling Projection: .335AVG/46HR/130RBI/120R/14SB
Possible Basement: .305AVG/34HR/110RBI/102R/4SB
1A. Miguel Cabrera - Miguel Cabrera is due for a coming out party. Sure he has been a top player for a long time but I still don't think he gets the credit he deserves. I think 2011 is the year all that changes when he passes Pujols as the #1 hitter in baseball. I see him being easily capable of .328AVG/43HR/130RBI/112R
Ceiling Projection: .338AVG/46HR/138RBI/118R
Possible Basement: .318AVG/35HR/115RBI/106R
3. Joey Votto - For some Votto's season came out of nowhere but it should have been expected. He has great contact skills and superb power. There is little reason to doubt he can repeat his 2010 performance or even build on it. The SB numbers should drop but everything else should stay relatively the same. .315AVG/35HR/118RBI/106R
Ceiling Projection: .329AVG/42HR/126RBI/106R
Possible Basement: .298/30HR/109RBI/96R
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Gonzalez's move to beantown makes him an interesting player to project. He will likely hit more home runs, RBIs and score more runs. He could be the next breakout star at 1B but he could also continue to produce solid numbers just outside of the top tier. The home runs will rise no doubt but it's his average that concerns me the most. The previous two seasons before last year he had struggled against lefties before hitting .337 against them. A jump of more than .100 means he must have improved his approach against lefties but it also means he probably got a bit lucky against them. He may not return to his 08-09 levels against southpaws but a drop from .337 can be expected and that will drive his AVG down and keep him out of elite company. But you never know what kind of an effect leaving Petco and joining a solid lineup could do for his numbers. He's a sleeper bet to be the #1 1B at season's end. Look for .285AVG/37HR/123RBI/100R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/46HR/135RBI/110R
Possible Basement: .276AVG/34HR/112RBI/94R
5. Mark Teixeira - Mark Teixeira has established a level of excellence that fantasy players have come to expect from the switch hitting slugger. 30 some odd home runs, 200+ Runs/RBI and so long as the BABIP fairy plays nice a .290+ AVG. Last season the BABIP fairy was a real bitch to Teixeira and his AVG dropped to .256. Look for the BABIP to normalize and a return to the .300 range. I foresee .292AVG/34HR/120RBI/111R
Ceiling Projection: .308AVG/37HR/134RBI/118R
Possible Basement: .280AVG/31HR/110RBI/103R
6. Prince Fielder - Prince Fielder struggled in 2010 after posting elite numbers in 2009. Still only 26 he should bounce back to stud status. His 2010 numbers should be his basement level of production and he could approach 50 HR if things go his way. .277AVG/40HR/128RBI/93R
Ceiling Projection: .290AVG/49HR/135RBI/102R
Possible Basement: .265AVG/34HR/104RBI/80R
7. Ryan Howard - Howard's power dropped off significantly in 2010 and many think this is the beginning of the end for the prodigious slugger. I am more optimistic for the slugger going into next year. The power came back for Ryan in the second half and he will be looking to bounce back in order to justify his massive contract. I predict something around .275AVG/36HR/120RBI/94R
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/46HR/125RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .265AVG/30HR/100RBI/85R
8. Kevin Youkilis - "Youk" missed the final two months of 2010 with a thumb injury and the health of his hand will determine what he's capable of in 2011. If he returns to 100% he could rank higher on the list at the end of the season. He should be counted on for a .300+ AVG and he could flirt with 30HR. I expect Youkilis to miss a few games here and there throughout the season and this should hold him back from being considered a dominant fantasy player next year. .308AVG/24HR/102RBI/90R
Ceiling Projection: .318AVG/30HR/110RBI/95R
Possible Basement: .295AVG/22HR/96RBI/80R
9. Adam Dunn - Big Donkey isn't going to improve his numbers much although the move to Chicago will help erase any regression that was going to occur. He has been the game's most consistent power hitter in baseball the past 7 years but he is 31 now and a drop in production is on its way. 2011 will probably be more of the same but if he spends significant time on the DL in the future it should spell the end of his 40+ HR power. .252AVG/39HR/106RBI/82R
Ceiling Projection: .272AVG/43HR/118RBI/85R
Possible Basement: .240AVG/35HR/100RBI/78R
10. Justin Morneau - Morneau was on an absolute tear when a concussion ended his season. He has MVP potential but the severity of the concussion raises some red flags about a full recovery. As long as Morneau is in the lineup he should produce and is a prime candidate to buy low and provide major return. .290AVG/28HR/103RBI/80R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/34HR/116RBI/90R
Possible Basement: .275AVG/26HR/99RBI/80R
Fantasy Forecasts: 2011 Catcher Rankings
Welcome to the first in a series of 2011 position rankings. Below are my thoughts on each player and how I see them performing in 2011. The projected ceilings are what the player is capable of if they have a healthy season and perform at their peak level with a bit of luck going their way. Most players won't reach their ceiling but I wouldn't rule it out. Their basement projection is how I see them performing if they were banged up for much of the season but still managed to get nearly a full season's worth of plate appearances. They could go lower but it would be due to an injury that I have no way of foreseeing. I will also toss in the odd injury prediction and playing time increase prognostication. I have a word a day calendar, any guesses on what today's word is? If you guessed 'increase' then congratulations. And now for the rankings.
1. Joe Mauer - The number one spot is a toss up Between Mauer, Martinez and McCann. Mauer has the best average, McCann the best power and Martinez the best mix of both. Joe Mauer has clearly shown the AVG is for real and 2009's hint at hidden power potential is too enticing. The power Mauer displayed in 2009 looks unlikely to repeat itself and we should expect something in the teens instead but he does have low 20s upside. He should be expected to maintain the high batting average but a drop in AVG along with his lack of power could put him near the bottom of the top tier or maybe even a dip into tier 2. I see something along the lines of .320/16HR/80RBI/90R.
Projected Ceiling: .340AVG/25HR/93RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .305AVG/11HR/73RBI/79R
2. Victor Martinez - I nearly put V-Mart at the top of the list because he is a bit better in the AVG department than Brian McCann and better in the power department than Joe Mauer, however, I just don't see Martinez being the top Catcher at the end of the year. But there is a case for it. The move to Detroit where he will be used primarily as a DH gives him a big boost in plate appearances and a better chance at a healthy season but he is getting on in years and a decline could be just around the corner. I predict him finishing with something like .292AVG/23HR/95RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/26HR/101RBI/84R
Possible Basement: .280AVG/18HR/80RBI/70R
3. Brian McCann - Brian McCann could be in line for some big HR numbers as he approaches his peak years. Maybe because he has performed so consistently at such a high level we forget he is still only 27 heading into 2011. If he can find that extra strength during the next few seasons like similar players his age have done in the past we could see McCann inching closer to 30 HR. McCann's BABIP has remained stable and aside from 2010 his batting average has stayed close to his BABIP. This means an average around .280-.290 can be expected with his AVG rising or dropping depending on how many HRs he hits. The BABIP/AVG difference in 2010 is a bit worrisome as it could mean McCann is starting to slow. I'm not too worried about it and I'm looking for McCann to give me .290AVG/26HR/90RBI/67R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/31HR/102RBI/77R
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/84RBI/64R
4. Buster Posey - 2010 NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds. Draft him hoping for something along the lines of .300AVG/20HR/83RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R
5. Geovany Soto - Injuries robbed Soto of a good portion of 2010 but they didn't stop him from re-establishing himself as one of the game's better offensive catchers. He looks like another Brian McCann except a year older, injury prone, and a teeny bit less power. If all things fall in place for him and he avoids the injury bug he would easily rank top 5 and probably higher. If you like his chances of staying healthy then he belongs in the top five but if you're concerned about another banged up season then feel free to knock him down a few notches. My guess for 2011: .270AVG/21HR/77RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/25HR/85RBI/72R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/16HR/68RBI/59R
6. Carlos Santana - My gut tells me this ranking is too low and he should be ahead of Soto and maybe even Posey but I'm going to take the cautious route with Santana because I don't expect him to play as many games as the competition. Reports are he is recovering nicely from the knee injury that ended his season last year and he should be ready for spring training. This bodes well for his performance but I think he will need extra time off here and there to get back to full strength. Or if he does play often his production will dip as his body takes more wear and tear. Santana looked solid in his debut last year showing off a strong eye and power to spare. He could explode up the charts this year but I expect a more steady climb to his superstar potential. My crystal ball tells me .282AVG/17HR/76RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .295AVG/23HR/86RBI/74R
Sophmore Adjustment and return from injury Projection: .278AVG/15HR/70RBI/60R
7. Kurt Suzuki - The Oakland catcher had a strong first half but faded after the break. Rather than a change in skills this may have to do with his grandfather passing away. We saw Joey Votto struggling with his father passing away so we should expect Suzuki to rebound in 2011. He gives you a decent batting average and some power. He gains an edge by receiving a large amount of playing time compared to most backstops. HE seems to have settled into his range of production so his ceiling and basement are quite close. Barring an injury that I have no way of forecasting I feel comfortable counting on Suzuki to give me .272AVG/15HR/75RBI/68R in 2011.
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/17HR/85RBI/74R
Possible Basement: .268AVG/13HR/70RBI/65R
8. Mike Napoli - Napoli is the best power hitting catcher in baseball and because of that he should be on your radar. However, power hitting is about all he does well and this limits his value because it keeps him from playing as much as the big boys of the position. Napoli saw an increase in playing time last year as he got extra at bats at first base. In 2011 he should get plenty of plate appearances splitting time between catcher, 1B and DH. He could see a big boost in his numbers if he hits higher in the order in 2011 so be on the lookout for that because it could lead to him getting near his ceiling projection. In 2011 he is likely to produce something in the range of .260AVG/25HR/73RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .268AVG/28HR/90RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/20HR/72RBI/59R
9. Miguel Montero - Heading into 2010 Miguel Montero was praised but disappointed fantasy owners by getting injured and producing middling numbers when in the lineup. Heading into 2011 he has the upside to climb the ranking board but I wouldn't count on it. His contact rate slumped big time last season and it's not like he has the speed to add a couple hits to make up for the damage poor contact does to a batting average. He does have above average power for a catcher and he hits in the middle of the Diamondbacks order so he should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Kurt Suzuki's 2009 is a prime example of what a catcher with middling power and contact can do in the heart of an order. I'm looking for Montero to produce .268AVG/15HR/72RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .276AVG/19HR/82RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .259AVG/14HR/74RBI/70R
10. Matt Wieters - Wieters' star has faded after his much ballyhooed debut. Now could be the time to buy in on Wieters since this could be the lowest his value will be for the next decade or so. Then again the past two years could be his true talent level showing. I expect Wieters to improve and he could be the next Brian McCann type. Draft him hoping for .268AVG/16HR/68RBI/55R and you won't be disappointed when he tops it.
Ceiling Projection: .274AVG/22HR/78RBI/62R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/15HR/66RBI/55R
If you think some deserves to be higher or lower on the list please feel free to let me know in the comments. I will be adding rankings 11-20 to this post shortly so please check back for that. I will be posting the first few players in my 1B rankings later and will continue to add player evaluations as I get the chance. I should have all positions ranked around the start of spring training and will continue to post updates. Thanks for reading.
1. Joe Mauer - The number one spot is a toss up Between Mauer, Martinez and McCann. Mauer has the best average, McCann the best power and Martinez the best mix of both. Joe Mauer has clearly shown the AVG is for real and 2009's hint at hidden power potential is too enticing. The power Mauer displayed in 2009 looks unlikely to repeat itself and we should expect something in the teens instead but he does have low 20s upside. He should be expected to maintain the high batting average but a drop in AVG along with his lack of power could put him near the bottom of the top tier or maybe even a dip into tier 2. I see something along the lines of .320/16HR/80RBI/90R.
Projected Ceiling: .340AVG/25HR/93RBI/100R
Possible Basement: .305AVG/11HR/73RBI/79R
2. Victor Martinez - I nearly put V-Mart at the top of the list because he is a bit better in the AVG department than Brian McCann and better in the power department than Joe Mauer, however, I just don't see Martinez being the top Catcher at the end of the year. But there is a case for it. The move to Detroit where he will be used primarily as a DH gives him a big boost in plate appearances and a better chance at a healthy season but he is getting on in years and a decline could be just around the corner. I predict him finishing with something like .292AVG/23HR/95RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/26HR/101RBI/84R
Possible Basement: .280AVG/18HR/80RBI/70R
3. Brian McCann - Brian McCann could be in line for some big HR numbers as he approaches his peak years. Maybe because he has performed so consistently at such a high level we forget he is still only 27 heading into 2011. If he can find that extra strength during the next few seasons like similar players his age have done in the past we could see McCann inching closer to 30 HR. McCann's BABIP has remained stable and aside from 2010 his batting average has stayed close to his BABIP. This means an average around .280-.290 can be expected with his AVG rising or dropping depending on how many HRs he hits. The BABIP/AVG difference in 2010 is a bit worrisome as it could mean McCann is starting to slow. I'm not too worried about it and I'm looking for McCann to give me .290AVG/26HR/90RBI/67R
Ceiling Projection: .305AVG/31HR/102RBI/77R
Possible Basement: .270AVG/20HR/84RBI/64R
4. Buster Posey - 2010 NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds. Draft him hoping for something along the lines of .300AVG/20HR/83RBI/75R
Ceiling Projection: .310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Possible Basement: .282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R
5. Geovany Soto - Injuries robbed Soto of a good portion of 2010 but they didn't stop him from re-establishing himself as one of the game's better offensive catchers. He looks like another Brian McCann except a year older, injury prone, and a teeny bit less power. If all things fall in place for him and he avoids the injury bug he would easily rank top 5 and probably higher. If you like his chances of staying healthy then he belongs in the top five but if you're concerned about another banged up season then feel free to knock him down a few notches. My guess for 2011: .270AVG/21HR/77RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/25HR/85RBI/72R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/16HR/68RBI/59R
6. Carlos Santana - My gut tells me this ranking is too low and he should be ahead of Soto and maybe even Posey but I'm going to take the cautious route with Santana because I don't expect him to play as many games as the competition. Reports are he is recovering nicely from the knee injury that ended his season last year and he should be ready for spring training. This bodes well for his performance but I think he will need extra time off here and there to get back to full strength. Or if he does play often his production will dip as his body takes more wear and tear. Santana looked solid in his debut last year showing off a strong eye and power to spare. He could explode up the charts this year but I expect a more steady climb to his superstar potential. My crystal ball tells me .282AVG/17HR/76RBI/65R
Ceiling Projection: .295AVG/23HR/86RBI/74R
Sophmore Adjustment and return from injury Projection: .278AVG/15HR/70RBI/60R
7. Kurt Suzuki - The Oakland catcher had a strong first half but faded after the break. Rather than a change in skills this may have to do with his grandfather passing away. We saw Joey Votto struggling with his father passing away so we should expect Suzuki to rebound in 2011. He gives you a decent batting average and some power. He gains an edge by receiving a large amount of playing time compared to most backstops. HE seems to have settled into his range of production so his ceiling and basement are quite close. Barring an injury that I have no way of forecasting I feel comfortable counting on Suzuki to give me .272AVG/15HR/75RBI/68R in 2011.
Ceiling Projection: .280AVG/17HR/85RBI/74R
Possible Basement: .268AVG/13HR/70RBI/65R
8. Mike Napoli - Napoli is the best power hitting catcher in baseball and because of that he should be on your radar. However, power hitting is about all he does well and this limits his value because it keeps him from playing as much as the big boys of the position. Napoli saw an increase in playing time last year as he got extra at bats at first base. In 2011 he should get plenty of plate appearances splitting time between catcher, 1B and DH. He could see a big boost in his numbers if he hits higher in the order in 2011 so be on the lookout for that because it could lead to him getting near his ceiling projection. In 2011 he is likely to produce something in the range of .260AVG/25HR/73RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .268AVG/28HR/90RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .245AVG/20HR/72RBI/59R
9. Miguel Montero - Heading into 2010 Miguel Montero was praised but disappointed fantasy owners by getting injured and producing middling numbers when in the lineup. Heading into 2011 he has the upside to climb the ranking board but I wouldn't count on it. His contact rate slumped big time last season and it's not like he has the speed to add a couple hits to make up for the damage poor contact does to a batting average. He does have above average power for a catcher and he hits in the middle of the Diamondbacks order so he should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Kurt Suzuki's 2009 is a prime example of what a catcher with middling power and contact can do in the heart of an order. I'm looking for Montero to produce .268AVG/15HR/72RBI/68R
Ceiling Projection: .276AVG/19HR/82RBI/75R
Possible Basement: .259AVG/14HR/74RBI/70R
10. Matt Wieters - Wieters' star has faded after his much ballyhooed debut. Now could be the time to buy in on Wieters since this could be the lowest his value will be for the next decade or so. Then again the past two years could be his true talent level showing. I expect Wieters to improve and he could be the next Brian McCann type. Draft him hoping for .268AVG/16HR/68RBI/55R and you won't be disappointed when he tops it.
Ceiling Projection: .274AVG/22HR/78RBI/62R
Possible Basement: .255AVG/15HR/66RBI/55R
If you think some deserves to be higher or lower on the list please feel free to let me know in the comments. I will be adding rankings 11-20 to this post shortly so please check back for that. I will be posting the first few players in my 1B rankings later and will continue to add player evaluations as I get the chance. I should have all positions ranked around the start of spring training and will continue to post updates. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Boom or Bust - Rookie Edition: Desmond Jennings, Domonic Brown, Freddie Freeman
Desmond Jennings' stock dropped this past season as he failed to build on the impressive numbers he put up in 2009. In AAA Desmond remained highly efficient on the basepaths but the power took a plunge and his average dropped quite a bit, although still respectable at .278. In 2011 he may not be as hyped as he was heading into 2010 but he is still worth keeping an eye on for your fantasy team simply because he is all but guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup out of spring training. The stolen bases will be there but the question is whether the power and average will rebound. As you can see by the projections I think Jennings will be a bit of a gamble in 2011. I would put my money on something closer to the bust prediction as he is likely to have his share of struggles in his first big league campaign but there is definite upside.
Boom Prediction: 600AB/170H/.283AVG/8HR/93R/50RBI/40SB
Bust Prediction: 520AB/138H/.265AVG/4HR/76R/35RBI/32SB
Domonic Brown may be the #1 hitting prospect heading into 2011. In 2010 he lived up to the promise that his athleticism and and size had always hinted at and destroyed AA/AAA pitching with a .327/.391/.589 line with 17SB. Many people see a 20-20 player in 2011 but I'm not buying it...yet. He may crack 20 HR but 20 SB seems like a long shot. His success rate for base stealing in the minors has been average and it is doubtful Charlie Manuel will let him run often. He struggled with the strikeout in his brief call-up last year and while he should make some corrections to bring that rate down it will probably sit at the quarter century mark meaning it would take a BABIP on the lucky side of .300 to get the average any higher than .275. those struggles will probably pop up again at various points this coming season. Anyone with his size and athleticism has a great chance for stardom but it will have to wait until he finds his comfort zone at the plate. We'll see glimpses of it in 2011 just not on a consistent basis.
Boom Prediction: 550AB/151H/.275AVG/25HR/78RBI/72R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 430AB/112H/.260AVG/17HR/60RBI/60R/8SB
The question of whether a young player's power will develop is a common one and nobody these days seems to have this question mark attached to them more than Freddie Freeman. Few seem to realize the power is already there. It may not be huge power but he has posted two seasons with ISOs over .200 in the minors. Many of the power questions come thanks to his .126 ISO in 2009 when he was adjusting to the higher minors as a 19 year old. In 2010 he rebounded with .200 in AAA at age 20. Freeman should hit 25 home runs during his peak years with a few years cracking 30. As for 2011 he will have another high level to adjust to so expect a total in the low to mid teens and more questions about his power.
Boom Prediction: 560AB/157H/.280AVG/19HR/84RBI/72R
Bust Prediction: 500AB/134H/.268AVG/14HR/71RBI/66R
Boom Prediction: 600AB/170H/.283AVG/8HR/93R/50RBI/40SB
Bust Prediction: 520AB/138H/.265AVG/4HR/76R/35RBI/32SB
Domonic Brown may be the #1 hitting prospect heading into 2011. In 2010 he lived up to the promise that his athleticism and and size had always hinted at and destroyed AA/AAA pitching with a .327/.391/.589 line with 17SB. Many people see a 20-20 player in 2011 but I'm not buying it...yet. He may crack 20 HR but 20 SB seems like a long shot. His success rate for base stealing in the minors has been average and it is doubtful Charlie Manuel will let him run often. He struggled with the strikeout in his brief call-up last year and while he should make some corrections to bring that rate down it will probably sit at the quarter century mark meaning it would take a BABIP on the lucky side of .300 to get the average any higher than .275. those struggles will probably pop up again at various points this coming season. Anyone with his size and athleticism has a great chance for stardom but it will have to wait until he finds his comfort zone at the plate. We'll see glimpses of it in 2011 just not on a consistent basis.
Boom Prediction: 550AB/151H/.275AVG/25HR/78RBI/72R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 430AB/112H/.260AVG/17HR/60RBI/60R/8SB
The question of whether a young player's power will develop is a common one and nobody these days seems to have this question mark attached to them more than Freddie Freeman. Few seem to realize the power is already there. It may not be huge power but he has posted two seasons with ISOs over .200 in the minors. Many of the power questions come thanks to his .126 ISO in 2009 when he was adjusting to the higher minors as a 19 year old. In 2010 he rebounded with .200 in AAA at age 20. Freeman should hit 25 home runs during his peak years with a few years cracking 30. As for 2011 he will have another high level to adjust to so expect a total in the low to mid teens and more questions about his power.
Boom Prediction: 560AB/157H/.280AVG/19HR/84RBI/72R
Bust Prediction: 500AB/134H/.268AVG/14HR/71RBI/66R
Monday, January 10, 2011
Boom or Bust - Sophmore Edition: Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Logan Morrison
Mike Stanton may be the strongest man in baseball... and he is only 21. After hitting 39 then 28 HR in the minors the past two years Stanton really caught fire and destroyed AA pitching to the tune of a .729 slugging percentage (!!!) until the Marlins could no longer justify keeping him in the minors. In the majors Stanton had some trouble making contact but when he did connect he caused major damage. In 2011 look for him to improve his contact skills and increase his power numbers. His Boom numbers are very high because with the power he has it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of a monster season. Barring an unforeseen injury he should be good for something near 35 HRs.
Boom Prediction: 603AB/167H/.277AVG/44HR/112RBI/97R/10SB
Bust Prediction: 580AB/152H/.262AVG/34HR/90RBI/85R/5SB
NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds.
Boom Prediction: 520AB/161H/.310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Bust Prediction: 450AB/127/.282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R
22 year old Logan Morrison showed a lot of promise in his rookie season with a .390 OBP thanks to a 14.3 BB%. The main knock against Morrison is the lack of power. You would expect more than 2 HR in 287AB from someone 6'3" 235 lbs. I believe the power will come since he has the size and an above average eye at the plate. For 2011 count on a home run total in the lower teens and another stellar OBP with an average similar to 2010 or a notch lower.
Boom Prediction: 590AB/168H/.285AVG/21HR/86RBI/90R
Bust Prediction: 540AB/145H/.269AVG/12HR/70RBI/80R
Boom Prediction: 603AB/167H/.277AVG/44HR/112RBI/97R/10SB
Bust Prediction: 580AB/152H/.262AVG/34HR/90RBI/85R/5SB
NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds.
Boom Prediction: 520AB/161H/.310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Bust Prediction: 450AB/127/.282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R
22 year old Logan Morrison showed a lot of promise in his rookie season with a .390 OBP thanks to a 14.3 BB%. The main knock against Morrison is the lack of power. You would expect more than 2 HR in 287AB from someone 6'3" 235 lbs. I believe the power will come since he has the size and an above average eye at the plate. For 2011 count on a home run total in the lower teens and another stellar OBP with an average similar to 2010 or a notch lower.
Boom Prediction: 590AB/168H/.285AVG/21HR/86RBI/90R
Bust Prediction: 540AB/145H/.269AVG/12HR/70RBI/80R
Boom or Bust - Young Pitcher Edition: James McDonald, Carlos Carrasco, Jeremy Hellickson
After being traded from the Dodgers to the Pirates at the deadline last year James McDonald was given his first opportunity to start full time in the MLB. He made the most of his chance and by season's end became the Pirates ace. While he may not be a true ace McDonald still knows how to sling a baseball. He struck out over a batter an inning at every level of the minors and posted 8.5 K/9 in the bigs last year. While being able to miss bats he does have his issues. He has average control and is a bit flyball happy. While he looked fantastic with the Pirates he could struggle if more balls start leaving the yard especially if he struggles with command and there are men on base. I am leaning more toward the Boom prediction here but there is the chance things fall apart on a sub-par Pirates team.
Boom Prediction: 13W/11L/180IP/180K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/12L/150IP/130K/4.55ERA
A major part of the Cliff Lee deal, Carlos Carrasco should be in the Indians starting rotation out of spring training. Carrasco has been a mixed bag in his career looking like a future stud one year and a bust the next. In 2010 he reclaimed some of that prospect hype and earned himself a 7 game stint in the rotation to end the year. Carlos impressed his manager and many around the league tossing 6 quality starts and striking out nearly a batter an inning. Carrasco will never be a strikeout artist but something in the 7-7.5 K/9 range is where he should sit with the odd season approaching 8. His command is also average. Most of his success will come through keeping the ball on the ground although he has had some trouble with the long ball in his career. Carrasco may be worth a flier to fill out the back of your rotation but don't expect many wins in Cleveland.
Boom Prediction: 10W/10L/160IP/140K/3.80ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/11L/150IP/120K/4.90ERA
Jeremy Hellickson has been minor league baseball's most consistent pitcher the past couple years. He is 49-16 in the minors with a 2.71ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 with most of it coming in AA and AAA. In the majors he is already 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. I guess what I'm trying to say is this kid is ready to take on the world. His stuff isn't overpowering but he has as many as three plus pitches and he knows how to use them. He should run into trouble from time to time in his first full season but he should be in the Rookie of the Year discussion when all is said and done.
Boom Prediction: 14W/7L/175IP/170K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 11W/9L/155IP/140K/4.10ERA
Boom Prediction: 13W/11L/180IP/180K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/12L/150IP/130K/4.55ERA
A major part of the Cliff Lee deal, Carlos Carrasco should be in the Indians starting rotation out of spring training. Carrasco has been a mixed bag in his career looking like a future stud one year and a bust the next. In 2010 he reclaimed some of that prospect hype and earned himself a 7 game stint in the rotation to end the year. Carlos impressed his manager and many around the league tossing 6 quality starts and striking out nearly a batter an inning. Carrasco will never be a strikeout artist but something in the 7-7.5 K/9 range is where he should sit with the odd season approaching 8. His command is also average. Most of his success will come through keeping the ball on the ground although he has had some trouble with the long ball in his career. Carrasco may be worth a flier to fill out the back of your rotation but don't expect many wins in Cleveland.
Boom Prediction: 10W/10L/160IP/140K/3.80ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/11L/150IP/120K/4.90ERA
Jeremy Hellickson has been minor league baseball's most consistent pitcher the past couple years. He is 49-16 in the minors with a 2.71ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 with most of it coming in AA and AAA. In the majors he is already 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. I guess what I'm trying to say is this kid is ready to take on the world. His stuff isn't overpowering but he has as many as three plus pitches and he knows how to use them. He should run into trouble from time to time in his first full season but he should be in the Rookie of the Year discussion when all is said and done.
Boom Prediction: 14W/7L/175IP/170K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 11W/9L/155IP/140K/4.10ERA
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Boom or Bust - Second Base Edition: Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson
Finally healthy for an entire season Rickie Weeks put up monster numbers in 2010. Weeks nearly doubled his career high in HRs going from 16 to 29. This makes it appear he is due for a drop back into the teens but his ISO was actually 3 points higher in 2007 when he only launched 16 over the wall. All of this means Rickie could be good for 20-25 HR. The scary thing about his 2010 numbers is he stole only 11 bases. Weeks has been an extremely proficient base stealer with a career 82% success rate. A jump to 20 SB is a real possibility. The strikeouts will keep the average down and I'm expecting the BABIP to drop to about .300 which will bring his AVG down toward the .250s.
We also can't forget about the injury history.
I think Weeks has great power and is a threat on the basepaths but I would keep his Bust numbers in mind on draft day. They are just as likely as another monster year and there is always the chances of Weeks missing considerable time.
Boom Prediction: 647AB/172H/.266AVG/28HR/86RBI/110R/20SB
Bust Prediction: 510AB/123H/.241AVG/19HR/64RBI/83R/12SB
Aaron Hill may have been the biggest letdown in fantasy in 2010. He remained powerful but his batting average suffered due to putting everything in the air. Hill has a smooth swing and is a better hitter than his AVG suggests. I believe he is a .270 20HR hitter which is good but not great. He is a safe bet to be an above average performer but it is unlikely he will be a dominating force like he was in 2009.
Boom Prediction: 645AB/180H/.279AVG/29HR/95RBI/92R
Bust Prediction: 505AB/132H/.261AVG/18HR/70RBI/74R
Kelly Johnson's power surge looked to be due to a move to a more hitter friendly park in Arizona with 16 of 26 coming in the Grand Canyon state. Heading into 2011 he should maintain the power while taking a slight dip in AVG. I wouldn't expect anything more than what he did in 2010 but he should be a solid fantasy 2B ranking in the bottom half of the top 10.
Boom Prediction: 600AB/168H/.280AVG/26HR/85RBI/90R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 540AB145H/.269AVG/20HR/73RBI/80R/7SB
We also can't forget about the injury history.
I think Weeks has great power and is a threat on the basepaths but I would keep his Bust numbers in mind on draft day. They are just as likely as another monster year and there is always the chances of Weeks missing considerable time.
Boom Prediction: 647AB/172H/.266AVG/28HR/86RBI/110R/20SB
Bust Prediction: 510AB/123H/.241AVG/19HR/64RBI/83R/12SB
Aaron Hill may have been the biggest letdown in fantasy in 2010. He remained powerful but his batting average suffered due to putting everything in the air. Hill has a smooth swing and is a better hitter than his AVG suggests. I believe he is a .270 20HR hitter which is good but not great. He is a safe bet to be an above average performer but it is unlikely he will be a dominating force like he was in 2009.
Boom Prediction: 645AB/180H/.279AVG/29HR/95RBI/92R
Bust Prediction: 505AB/132H/.261AVG/18HR/70RBI/74R
Kelly Johnson's power surge looked to be due to a move to a more hitter friendly park in Arizona with 16 of 26 coming in the Grand Canyon state. Heading into 2011 he should maintain the power while taking a slight dip in AVG. I wouldn't expect anything more than what he did in 2010 but he should be a solid fantasy 2B ranking in the bottom half of the top 10.
Boom Prediction: 600AB/168H/.280AVG/26HR/85RBI/90R/15SB
Bust Prediction: 540AB145H/.269AVG/20HR/73RBI/80R/7SB
Boom or Bust: Jason Heyward
The number one question surrounding Jason Heyward is whether his power will emerge in 2011. He displayed historic plate discipline for a player his age but for some his power was a letdown with "only" 18 HR. However, a .179 ISO for a 20 year makes that number a little more impressive. The fans at Fangraphs project him for 32 HR, .312 AVG with a 265 ISO, much of that ISO coming in the form of an equally impressive projected jump in doubles. As good as Heyward has looked a jump in power of .086 points of ISO is unlikely. Bill James takes a more modest approach projecting 22 HR, .295 AVG and a .198 ISO. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see more than 22HR with something in the mid 20s more likely. Just one look at Heyward and you have to realize the power will come but those expecting 30 HR and 20SB with a .300AVG will likely be disappointed. I put his Boom projection in that range because I won't rule it out for this year but that's his best case scenario in my eyes. His bust prediction is still an improvement on his rookie numbers because I don't see how he cannot make strides next year.
Boom Prediction: 600AB/182H/.303AVG/33HR/110RBI/112R/17SB
Bust Prediction: 560AB/150H/.268AVG/24HR/85RBI/85R/10SB
Boom Prediction: 600AB/182H/.303AVG/33HR/110RBI/112R/17SB
Bust Prediction: 560AB/150H/.268AVG/24HR/85RBI/85R/10SB
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Boom or Bust - Third Base Edition: Pedro Alvarez, Edwin Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez
Pedro Alvarez is a breakout waiting to happen. With fantastic power numbers in the minors he made his way to the majors quickly and after a slow debut month he really turned it on. Having Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata hitting in front of him will provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Only 24 on opening day Alvarez will run into some bumps in the road and that road could lead to consistent 30+ HR seasons. But for 2011 with such poor protection in the Pirates' lineup he will probably fall short of 30 unless he catches fire for an extended period of time during the season.
Boom Prediction: 576AB/158H/.274AVG/33HR/99RBI/78R
Bust Prediction: 522AB/133H/.255AVG/23HR/83RBI/65R
Edwin Encarnacion will split time at 1B and DH with Adam Lind in 2011. He has shown promise but so far has failed to live up to it. He has 30 HR power but is unlikely to get enough plate appearances to do so. He is worth a look if you're after a safe bet for 20HR with an outside chance at 30. He won't provide much in AVG he could have low RBI and R totals hitting near the bottom of the Jays low OBP lineup.
Boom Prediction: 456AB/120H/.263AVG/27HR/83RBI/69R
Bust Prediction: 400AB/95H/.238AVG/23HR/54RBI/48R
Aramis Ramirez was hindered by injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. A slight return of his AVG should be expected as he posted .241 AVG after batting .289 or higher for the past 6 seasons. The power is still there so a HR total in the high 20s is likely. He could, however, miss more time to injuries and continue to decline. If he remains healthy he will be a solid bat but that is a major if. Chances are A-Ram doesn't go the entire season without hitting the DL.
Boom Prediction: 544AB/150H/.276AVG/28HR/94RBI/74R
Bust Prediction: 315AB/82H/.260AVG/14HR/43RBI/38R
Boom Prediction: 576AB/158H/.274AVG/33HR/99RBI/78R
Bust Prediction: 522AB/133H/.255AVG/23HR/83RBI/65R
Edwin Encarnacion will split time at 1B and DH with Adam Lind in 2011. He has shown promise but so far has failed to live up to it. He has 30 HR power but is unlikely to get enough plate appearances to do so. He is worth a look if you're after a safe bet for 20HR with an outside chance at 30. He won't provide much in AVG he could have low RBI and R totals hitting near the bottom of the Jays low OBP lineup.
Boom Prediction: 456AB/120H/.263AVG/27HR/83RBI/69R
Bust Prediction: 400AB/95H/.238AVG/23HR/54RBI/48R
Aramis Ramirez was hindered by injuries in 2010 and his numbers showed it. A slight return of his AVG should be expected as he posted .241 AVG after batting .289 or higher for the past 6 seasons. The power is still there so a HR total in the high 20s is likely. He could, however, miss more time to injuries and continue to decline. If he remains healthy he will be a solid bat but that is a major if. Chances are A-Ram doesn't go the entire season without hitting the DL.
Boom Prediction: 544AB/150H/.276AVG/28HR/94RBI/74R
Bust Prediction: 315AB/82H/.260AVG/14HR/43RBI/38R
Boom or Bust: Matt Garza
Garza has always had the stuff of a great pitcher. He has shown glimpses of greatness but has remained nothing more than a middle of the pack pitcher. His K-rate has been as high as 8.38 K/9 but that number sticks out from the rest of his annual rates of 6.84, 7.27, 6.24 and 6.60. The general consensus projects a a K/9 around 7.5 and ERA near 3.80. I wouldn't rule this out but I see it more of his best case scenarion. He allows a large amount of flyballs and has received some luck from the BABIP fairy and the LOB% Elf. Moving to Wrigley will not help a flyball pitcher and Garza should see his ERA rise. The Boom prediction is usually a best case scenario but I am going low with it. His Boom could be eclipsed but I don't see it coming from Garza and project regression.
Boom Prediction: 14W/9L/4.00ERA/205IP/167K/1.30WHIP
Bust Prediction: 9W/13L/4.38ERA/180IP/136K/1.37WHIP
Boom Prediction: 14W/9L/4.00ERA/205IP/167K/1.30WHIP
Bust Prediction: 9W/13L/4.38ERA/180IP/136K/1.37WHIP
Boom or Bust: Yunel Escobar
A SS with a solid AVG, strong OBP skills and some power and few strikeouts is a rather rare thing so fantasy owners had high expectations for Yunel in 2010. Escobar failed to live up to expectations and was shipped to Toronto. He regained some of the AVG and power but the promise he showed in 2009 failed to surface. The power may never develop but his AVG and OBP should still make him a productive SS especially if the Jays keep him at #2 in the order. He is a #2 SS going into 2011 with an outside shot at breaking the top 10.
Boom Prediction: 632AB/183H/.290AVG/14HR/74RBI/97R
Bust Prediction: 558AB/155H/.278AVG/6HR/54RBI/79R
Boom Prediction: 632AB/183H/.290AVG/14HR/74RBI/97R
Bust Prediction: 558AB/155H/.278AVG/6HR/54RBI/79R
Boom or Bust: Andre Ethier
A broken pinky derailed Ethier's season after starting at a torrid pace. He was the NL's triple crown leader when he went down with the injury and his production was nowhere near where it had been before the injury. I remember reading Ethier had the potential to win a batting crown so it's not like his April came out of nowhere. While a batting crown may be a bit of a stretch an AVG around .300 is not. Combine that with an ISO that has been above .200 the past 3 seasons and you have one of the game's better hitters. Ethier should bounce back nicely in 2011. His low numbers in 2010 may drive down his value and he could fall in drafts. Target Ethier as a #2 OF and you won't be disappointed especially since he could put up numbers that put him among the leaders in fantasy production. Ethier has the potential to be 2011's Joey Votto.
Boom Prediction: 604AB/187H/.310AVG/37HR/115RBI/105R
Bust Prediction: 510AB/143H/.280AVG/24HR/80RBI/76R
Boom Prediction: 604AB/187H/.310AVG/37HR/115RBI/105R
Bust Prediction: 510AB/143H/.280AVG/24HR/80RBI/76R
Boom or Bust: Gio Gonzalez
A prospect that has been traded 3 times before planting his feet firmly on the mound in Oakland, Gio Gonzalez enjoyed a solid 2010. Managing to keep the ball in the strikezone enough to display his knee-buckling curve he laid down a 3.23 ERA. Most expect regression but it may not be as bad as most think. If Gio's control continues to improve 2010 may not stand out as his career year. His strand rate and BABIP are on the lucky side of things so the regression crowd has something there but if those numbers return to average Gio could easily make up for it with an increase in his K-rate. Before 2010 the only time he has posted a K/9 below 9 was an 8 start stint in A ball as an 18 year old.
So long as he doesn't walk the ballpark Gio is a strong candidate to be a #2-3SP on your fantasy team.
Boom Prediction: 17W/9L/3.40ERA/214IP/210K/1.32WHIP
Bust Prediction: 9W/12L/4.42ERA/178IP/165K/1.46WHIP
So long as he doesn't walk the ballpark Gio is a strong candidate to be a #2-3SP on your fantasy team.
Boom Prediction: 17W/9L/3.40ERA/214IP/210K/1.32WHIP
Bust Prediction: 9W/12L/4.42ERA/178IP/165K/1.46WHIP
Boom or Bust: Dan Haren
Dan Haren's 2010 was considered a disappointment by most. While his win-loss record was less than ideal he posted numbers pretty much in line with his elite seasons of the past. He tossed a career high 235 innings with his K/9 remaining above 8 and a BB/9 a smidge above 2. Pitching in Angel Stadium will bring his HR/9 below 1 after allowing 1.47 in his time in Arizona in 2010. Many may be down on Haren making him a great chance at a steal come draft day this year. Haren can be a #1 SP for your team even breaking back into the top 5 of fantasy SP if all things align for him. While it is seldom that everything goes right for a player over an entire season, Haren has the talent to be no less than a #2 SP barring injury.
Boom Prediction: 16W/10L/2.95ERA/231IP/192K/1.15WHIP
Bust Prediction: 14W/11L/3.45ERA/189IP/160K/1.20WHIP
Boom Prediction: 16W/10L/2.95ERA/231IP/192K/1.15WHIP
Bust Prediction: 14W/11L/3.45ERA/189IP/160K/1.20WHIP
Boom or Bust: Martin Prado
Breaking out big in 2010 Martin Prado was a top 10 fantasy performer at 3B and 2B. Toss in 1B eligibility and Prado's value went beyond the numerous points he brought your team. Heading into his age 27 season we could see Prado build on his strong 2010.
With a AVG over .300 for 3 successive years we can safely assume he can maintain those numbers. He shocked many by adding pop to the high batting average going yard 15 times last season. He tailed off after the all-star break hitting only 5 dingers but that could be explained by the fact that he was fairly banged up. Health seems to be the only thing standing in the way of Prado taking another step forward in 2011. While he is probably close to his ceiling he is a safe bet to be a top 10 2B performer again.
Boom Prediction: 653AB/203H/.311AVG/18HR/112R/81RBI/7SB
Bust Prediction: 565AB/170/.301AVG/9HR/82R/64RBI/4SB
With a AVG over .300 for 3 successive years we can safely assume he can maintain those numbers. He shocked many by adding pop to the high batting average going yard 15 times last season. He tailed off after the all-star break hitting only 5 dingers but that could be explained by the fact that he was fairly banged up. Health seems to be the only thing standing in the way of Prado taking another step forward in 2011. While he is probably close to his ceiling he is a safe bet to be a top 10 2B performer again.
Boom Prediction: 653AB/203H/.311AVG/18HR/112R/81RBI/7SB
Bust Prediction: 565AB/170/.301AVG/9HR/82R/64RBI/4SB
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Boom or Bust: Mark Reynolds
It's fitting Mark Reynolds would be the first subject in my Boom or Bust series since he can certainly bring the boom but also the bust.
Smashing 44 home runs in 2009 and swiping 24 bags made Reynolds a fantasy star at third base. Regression was to be expected but many were surprised when Reynolds limped to the finish line with a .198 AVG, 32 HR and 7 SB.
What does that mean for Reynolds in 2011? His stock is lower than Paris Hilton's sense of decency and he could end up as a draft day bargain. His ISO remained intact so the power is still there. It seems Reynolds tried to be more patient at the plate by increasing his walk rate 2.4%. Being patient is fine for some hitters but for a whiff prone player like Reynolds this just leads to more 2 strike counts and an obvious increase in strikeouts. If Reynolds drops his walk rate to the 10% range from the 13.9% he posted in 2010 he could actually see his K-rate drop as well.
Much of the low batting average can be blamed on a .257 BABIP after averaging .348 the 3 previous years. With a BABIP around .320 he could post an AVG near .260 and with an ISO around .230 that could mean a chance at 40 HR. However there is still the possibility that his K-rate doesn't rebound as pitchers center in on the holes in his swing. With a few improvements and some luck Mark Reynolds could find himself flirting with another top 5 fantasy 3B ranking or he could just as easily struggle to make any contact and lose playing time to Josh Bell.
Boom Prediction: 612 AB/154H/.252/37HR/93RBI/10SB
Bust Prediction: 410 AB/94H/.229/20HR/54RBI/4SB
Smashing 44 home runs in 2009 and swiping 24 bags made Reynolds a fantasy star at third base. Regression was to be expected but many were surprised when Reynolds limped to the finish line with a .198 AVG, 32 HR and 7 SB.
What does that mean for Reynolds in 2011? His stock is lower than Paris Hilton's sense of decency and he could end up as a draft day bargain. His ISO remained intact so the power is still there. It seems Reynolds tried to be more patient at the plate by increasing his walk rate 2.4%. Being patient is fine for some hitters but for a whiff prone player like Reynolds this just leads to more 2 strike counts and an obvious increase in strikeouts. If Reynolds drops his walk rate to the 10% range from the 13.9% he posted in 2010 he could actually see his K-rate drop as well.
Much of the low batting average can be blamed on a .257 BABIP after averaging .348 the 3 previous years. With a BABIP around .320 he could post an AVG near .260 and with an ISO around .230 that could mean a chance at 40 HR. However there is still the possibility that his K-rate doesn't rebound as pitchers center in on the holes in his swing. With a few improvements and some luck Mark Reynolds could find himself flirting with another top 5 fantasy 3B ranking or he could just as easily struggle to make any contact and lose playing time to Josh Bell.
Boom Prediction: 612 AB/154H/.252/37HR/93RBI/10SB
Bust Prediction: 410 AB/94H/.229/20HR/54RBI/4SB
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