Monday, January 10, 2011

Boom or Bust - Sophmore Edition: Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Logan Morrison

Mike Stanton may be the strongest man in baseball... and he is only 21. After hitting 39 then 28 HR in the minors the past two years Stanton really caught fire and destroyed AA pitching to the tune of a .729 slugging percentage (!!!) until the Marlins could no longer justify keeping him in the minors. In the majors Stanton had some trouble making contact but when he did connect he caused major damage. In 2011 look for him to improve his contact skills and increase his power numbers. His Boom numbers are very high because with the power he has it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of a monster season. Barring an unforeseen injury he should be good for something near 35 HRs.

Boom Prediction: 603AB/167H/.277AVG/44HR/112RBI/97R/10SB
Bust Prediction: 580AB/152H/.262AVG/34HR/90RBI/85R/5SB

NL Rookie of The Year Buster Posey certainly lived up to the hype. He hit for average but surprised many with 18 HR. Heading into 2011 many have ranked him among the top 3 fantasy catchers and he has even topped a few lists. He surely has the talent to be the #1 backstop but he will likely have to wait a couple years before gaining that distinction. For next year look for numbers similar to his rookie campaign as opposing pitchers will make adjustments as he will be the focus of the Giants lineup. Many expected Matt Wieters to make a leap to elite in his sophomore season and he barely ranked among the top 20 catchers in baseball. Posey should have a more successful sophomore season but those drafting him in the first or second round may not get the kind of production that can be had in those rounds.

Boom Prediction: 520AB/161H/.310AVG/24HR/86RBI/80R
Bust Prediction: 450AB/127/.282AVG/16HR/75RBI/64R

22 year old Logan Morrison showed a lot of promise in his rookie season with a .390 OBP thanks to a 14.3 BB%. The main knock against Morrison is the lack of power. You would expect more than 2 HR in 287AB from someone 6'3" 235 lbs. I believe the power will come since he has the size and an above average eye at the plate. For 2011 count on a home run total in the lower teens and another stellar OBP with an average similar to 2010 or a notch lower.

Boom Prediction: 590AB/168H/.285AVG/21HR/86RBI/90R
Bust Prediction: 540AB/145H/.269AVG/12HR/70RBI/80R

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