Monday, January 10, 2011

Boom or Bust - Young Pitcher Edition: James McDonald, Carlos Carrasco, Jeremy Hellickson

After being traded from the Dodgers to the Pirates at the deadline last year James McDonald was given his first opportunity to start full time in the MLB. He made the most of his chance and by season's end became the Pirates ace. While he may not be a true ace McDonald still knows how to sling a baseball. He struck out over a batter an inning at every level of the minors and posted 8.5 K/9 in the bigs last year. While being able to miss bats he does have his issues. He has average control and is a bit flyball happy. While he looked fantastic with the Pirates he could struggle if more balls start leaving the yard especially if he struggles with command and there are men on base. I am leaning more toward the Boom prediction here but there is the chance things fall apart on a sub-par Pirates team.

Boom Prediction: 13W/11L/180IP/180K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/12L/150IP/130K/4.55ERA

A major part of the Cliff Lee deal, Carlos Carrasco should be in the Indians starting rotation out of spring training. Carrasco has been a mixed bag in his career looking like a future stud one year and a bust the next. In 2010 he reclaimed some of that prospect hype and earned himself a 7 game stint in the rotation to end the year. Carlos impressed his manager and many around the league tossing 6 quality starts and striking out nearly a batter an inning. Carrasco will never be a strikeout artist but something in the 7-7.5 K/9 range is where he should sit with the odd season approaching 8. His command is also average. Most of his success will come through keeping the ball on the ground although he has had some trouble with the long ball in his career. Carrasco may be worth a flier to fill out the back of your rotation but don't expect many wins in Cleveland.

Boom Prediction: 10W/10L/160IP/140K/3.80ERA
Bust Prediction: 6W/11L/150IP/120K/4.90ERA

Jeremy Hellickson has been minor league baseball's most consistent pitcher the past couple years. He is 49-16 in the minors with a 2.71ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 with most of it coming in AA and AAA. In the majors he is already 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. I guess what I'm trying to say is this kid is ready to take on the world. His stuff isn't overpowering but he has as many as three plus pitches and he knows how to use them. He should run into trouble from time to time in his first full season but he should be in the Rookie of the Year discussion when all is said and done.

Boom Prediction: 14W/7L/175IP/170K/3.40ERA
Bust Prediction: 11W/9L/155IP/140K/4.10ERA

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