Friday, June 4, 2010

What is up with Jose Bautista?

Apparently a lot of baseballs are up, up, way up for Bautista. The surprising Major League home run leader is hitting the ball in the air 53% of the time compared to a career 44%. He is also hitting those fly balls out of the park at almost twice the rate of his career average. This all suggests a drop to come but it may not be as drastic as many are expecting. He is striking out at a slightly lower rate and walking more often. He is seeing the ball better than ever before in his career and this is translating to a more confident swing. ZiPS predicts a drop off but still projects him for more than 30 HR. 35 is a realistic number for this season and 25-30 seems like a reasonable number for the following few seasons.

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